OneStream (OS) Surges 28.3% on $24/share Buyout: A $6.4B Takeover Ignites Market Frenzy

Summary
• OneStream (OS) surges 28.3% to $23.595, trading above its 52-week high of $30.93
• Hg Capital to acquire OS at $24/share, a 31% premium to Jan 5 close
• Options frenzy: 268 contracts traded for OS20260116C22.5, up 2260%
• Turnover hits 36.3M shares, 42.8% of float

OneStream’s stock erupted in a historic intraday rally as the $24/share buyout by Hg Capital triggered a liquidity stampede. With the stock trading 28.3% above its previous close, the $23.595 price point now sits just $0.405 below the $24 acquisition floor. The 36.3M share turnover—42.8% of the float—underscores the urgency of shareholders cashing in ahead of the first-half 2026 closing.

Takeover Premium and Liquidity Rush Drive Volatility
The 28.3% intraday surge in OneStream’s stock is directly attributable to the $24/share all-cash buyout by Hg Capital, a 31% premium over its Jan 5 closing price of $18.39. The transaction, valued at $6.4 billion, has created an immediate floor for the stock, with shareholders now racing to lock in gains before the delisting. The $23.595 price point reflects a 27% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average, aligning with the $24 takeover price. The 36.3M share turnover—42.8% of the float—highlights the liquidity event’s intensity, as investors and insiders liquidate positions ahead of the first-half 2026 closing.

Application Software Sector Quiet as OS Soars on Takeover
The Application Software sector remains subdued, with Oracle (ORCL), the sector leader, up just 0.93% intraday. OneStream’s 28.3% rally is an outlier driven by the $24/share buyout, not sector-wide momentum. While Oracle’s modest gain reflects broader software market stability, OneStream’s move is purely event-driven, detached from sector dynamics.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on the $24 Floor
• 200-day MA: $21.93 (below current price)
• RSI: 55.69 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.28 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.31, Histogram: +0.028
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $19.41 (below current price), Middle $18.33

OneStream’s stock is now trading near its 52-week high of $30.93, with the $24 takeover price acting as a hard floor. The 28.3% intraday surge has pushed the stock above its 200-day MA of $21.93 and into overbought territory on the RSI. The MACD remains bearish, but the histogram’s positive divergence suggests short-term momentum. The Bollinger Bands show the stock is far above its upper band, indicating extreme overbought conditions. The 36.3M share turnover—42.8% of the float—confirms the liquidity event’s urgency.

Top Options Picks:
• OS20260116C22.5 (Call, $22.5 strike, Jan 16 expiry):
- IV: 23.95% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 20.00%
- Delta: 0.8837 (high)
- Theta: -0.0833 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1994 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 32,978
- Price Change Ratio: 2260.00%
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.245 (max(0, 24.7245 - 22.5))
- Why: High delta and gamma make this call ideal for a short-term rally toward $24. The 2260% price change ratio indicates explosive demand.

• OS20260220C25 (Call, $25 strike, Feb 20 expiry):
- IV: 11.75% (low)
- Leverage Ratio: 471.90%
- Delta: 0.1076 (low)
- Theta: -0.0042 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1880 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 24,173
- Price Change Ratio: -37.50%
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0 (max(0, 24.7245 - 25))
- Why: Despite a low delta, the 471.90% leverage ratio and high gamma make this a speculative play if the stock breaks above $25. The low IV suggests undervaluation.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize OS20260116C22.5 for a short-term pop toward $24. Conservative investors may consider OS20260220C25 as a long-term bet on the takeover’s execution.

Backtest OneStream Stock Performance
The backtest of OS's performance after a 28% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day win rate is high at 43.48%, the 10-Day and 30-Day win rates are lower at 39.13% and 38.51%, respectively. The returns over the backtested periods are negative, with a maximum return of 0% over 30 days, indicating that the strategy may not have sustained long-term profitability.

OneStream’s $24 Floor: A 28.3% Rally and a $6.4B Exit Strategy
OneStream’s 28.3% intraday surge is a liquidity event masquerading as a stock rally. The $24 takeover price creates an immediate floor, with the stock now trading just $0.405 below that level. The 36.3M share turnover—42.8% of the float—confirms the urgency of shareholders cashing in ahead of the first-half 2026 closing. While the MACD remains bearish, the RSI’s neutral stance and Bollinger Bands’ overbought conditions suggest the stock may consolidate near $24 before the delisting. Investors should watch for a pullback to $22.31 (intraday low) as a potential entry point. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL)’s 0.93% gain highlights the sector’s lack of momentum, reinforcing that OneStream’s move is purely event-driven. Act now: Buy OS20260116C22.5 for a short-term pop toward $24, or hold for the $24 cash-out.