ONEOK's Stock Surges 2.11% as Trading Volume Plummets 38.21% to 312th in Market Rankings

Market Snapshot

On February 26, 2026, ONEOK (OKE) closed with a 2.11% increase in its stock price. However, the company’s trading volume dropped significantly, with a reported $0.45 billion in trading volume—a 38.21% decline from the previous day—ranking 312th in the market. Despite the positive price movement, the sharp reduction in trading activity suggests cautious investor sentiment following the earnings report.

Key Drivers

Strong Full-Year Earnings and EBITDA Growth

ONEOK reported full-year 2025 net income of $3.39 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $8.02 billion, up 18% compared to 2024. These results were driven by higher natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas processing volumes, as well as the integration of acquisitions like EnLink and Medallion. The Rocky Mountain region saw a 15% rise in NGL raw feed throughput and a 3% increase in natural gas volumes processed. Management attributed the performance to “continued synergy capture from a multi-year acquisition plan” and operational leverage from completed projects.

Revenue Miss in Q4 and Market Reaction

While full-year results were robust, the fourth-quarter earnings report highlighted a 9.54% revenue miss relative to forecasts, with revenue of $8.44 billion falling below the $9.33 billion estimate. This discrepancy, combined with a 6.29% after-hours stock price decline, reflected investor concerns over near-term revenue volatility. The Q4 revenue shortfall was partially offset by a 0.65% beat in EPS, which reached $1.55 per share. Analysts noted that the revenue underperformance was linked to narrower product price differentials and lower average fee rates in certain regions, despite higher volumes in the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast areas.

2026 Guidance and Strategic Priorities

ONEOK provided 2026 financial guidance, projecting net income and adjusted EBITDA midpoints of $3.45 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively. The company emphasized continued growth from recent acquisitions, fee-based earnings from volume expansion, and synergies totaling $150 million. Capital expenditures are expected to range between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, with key projects including the Medford fractionator rebuild and the Eiger Express Pipeline expansion. Management also highlighted a 4% dividend increase to $1.07 per share and $3.1 billion in long-term debt reduction in 2025, underscoring its focus on strengthening the balance sheet.

Commodity Price Outlook and Risks

The company’s 2026 guidance assumes an average WTI crude oil price of $55–$60 per barrel, reflecting expectations of moderated producer activity due to the commodity price environment. While ONEOK’s operations are largely fee-based (90%+ in most segments), the Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment remains partially exposed to commodity price fluctuations, with 75% of its risk hedged. Analysts noted that geopolitical uncertainties and potential weather disruptions could impact execution on capital projects, though the company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.8x at year-end 2025 indicates a strong financial position.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Revisions

Despite the strong earnings performance, ONEOK’s stock faced downward pressure post-earnings, with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) due to unfavorable earnings estimate revisions. The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates twice in the past four quarters but has only topped revenue forecasts once. The Zacks Equity Research report highlighted a “flawed balance sheet” and industry-specific challenges, as the Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline sector ranks in the bottom 23% of Zacks industries. However, the company’s 18.8% year-to-date stock price gain outperformed the S&P 500, suggesting underlying confidence in its long-term value creation.

Conclusion

ONEOK’s stock price movement reflects a mix of optimism over its full-year 2025 results and caution regarding near-term revenue volatility and industry headwinds. The company’s strategic focus on acquisition synergies, fee-based earnings, and debt reduction positions it for sustained growth, though investors remain wary of commodity price risks and execution challenges. With 2026 guidance emphasizing operational leverage and capital discipline, the path forward hinges on the successful implementation of its multi-year integration plans and the stability of energy market conditions.