Oneok Shares Plunge 3.27% As Technical Indicators Flash Strong Bearish Signals

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Oneok (OKE)
Oneok (OKE) closed its most recent trading session (2025-06-04) at $80.52, marking a significant decline of 3.27%. This sharp drop, characterized by a long red candle closing near its low, raises immediate technical concerns warranting deeper analysis across multiple indicators.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action exhibits bearish dominance. The June 4th session formed a significant bearish candle, engulfing the prior day's modest gains and closing near its low. This confirms $80.50 as critical immediate support. Prior key levels emerge: resistance is evident near $83.85 (June 4th high) and $88.19 (April peak), while support zones lie around $80.26 (current session low) and the $79.00-$78.70 region seen in early May and late June 2024. The long bearish candle on April 4th, closing down sharply after testing highs near $89.60, remains a pivotal bearish signal.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages paint a decisively bearish intermediate-to-long-term picture. The 50-day moving average (approximately $86) and the 100-day moving average (approximately $90) are both sloping downwards and situated well below the flatter but also declining 200-day moving average (approximately $93). The current price ($80.52) is trading significantly below all three key averages, confirming strong downward pressure. This alignment suggests the medium and long-term trends for OKE are bearish, with the averages acting as resistance during any potential rallies. A sustained price move above the 50-day MA would be the first technical requirement to suggest weakening bearish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Both momentum oscillators confirm bearish sentiment. The MACD (using standard 12,26,9 periods) resides firmly below its signal line and deep in negative territory, showing ongoing bearish momentum with no signs of a crossover signal. The KDJ indicator similarly reflects strong downward pressure. The %K line is below the %D line, and both are currently dipping towards oversold levels (around 15-20). While traditionally this KDJ position could suggest oversold conditions, within the context of a strong downtrend, it primarily signals ongoing negative momentum. Neither oscillator currently provides a reliable bullish divergence signal versus price.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands (20-day period), recently expanded during the June 4th sell-off as the price broke below the lower band ($81.50 est.), a typically oversold signal. However, such breaks can also signify acceleration in the prevailing downtrend. The bands had previously contracted in late May, suggesting a pending move, which resolved decisively to the downside. Price closing below the lower band after expansion indicates intense selling pressure, but also raises the possibility of a short-term oversold bounce. Sustained trading below the lower band is unusual and often unsustainable in the medium term.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis supports the bearish narrative, particularly around significant down moves. The sharp decline on June 4th was accompanied by significantly higher volume (6.15 million shares) compared to the previous two sessions, validating the selling pressure. The massive selling climax on April 4th (over 11 million shares traded as OKE gapped down sharply) remains a high-volume reference point for distribution. Recent bounces, like the one on May 12th and May 8th, lacked substantial volume conviction. Bearish confirmation consistently comes with higher volume, while bullish attempts lack accompanying volume spikes.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14-period) is deeply oversold at approximately 29.5, based on recent closing prices leading into June 4th. While readings below 30 traditionally indicate an oversold asset, it is crucial to remember the RSI is a warning indicator, not a reversal signal, especially within established downtrends. The RSI has remained below 50 since early April, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. It has not yet shown a clear bullish divergence relative to price. Caution is warranted as RSI can remain oversold for extended periods during strong downtrends before price recovery materializes.
Fibonacci Retracement
A primary downtrend measured from the significant peak of approximately $117.55 (November 25, 2024) to the recent low of $80.26 (June 4, 2025) yields critical Fibonacci retracement levels. Key resistance areas emerge at:
23.6% Retracement: ~$89.00
38.2% Retracement: ~$93.21
50.0% Retracement: ~$98.91
61.8% Retracement: ~$104.61
The current price position ($80.52) is well below the 23.6% level. This reinforces the resistance offered by the cluster of moving averages near $86-$93. Any significant recovery would likely face its first major hurdle near $89.00 and stronger resistance around $93.20. Conversely, the failure to hold above the psychological $80.00 support level would suggest a potential extension of the downtrend.
Summary of Key Confluences and Divergences
Strong Bearish Confluence: The sustained price position below the declining 50, 100, and 200-day MAs, combined with bearish MACD and KDJ readings, deep oversold RSI without divergence, and down moves confirmed by rising volume, paints a unanimously bearish picture across key indicators. The failure to breach Fibonacci resistance near $89-$93 further reinforces this.
Significant Support: The $80.26 - $80.50 zone acts as immediate, critical support. Breaching this significantly increases the bearish outlook.
Oversold Conditions (Caution): Deep oversold levels on KDJ and RSI, combined with the recent Bollinger Band break, suggest the potential for a technical bounce or consolidation. However, within the dominant downtrend and lacking supportive volume on up moves or bullish divergences, this signal is weak. High volume distribution days and consistent closes near session lows underscore prevailing bearish momentum.
Required Signals for Reversal: A sustainable bullish reversal requires several confirmatory events: a break above the 50-day MA ($86), ideally on rising volume; development of positive divergences on MACD/RSI versus price; and finally, a KDJ bullish crossover occurring outside the oversold zone. Currently, none of these prerequisites are evident.