Oneok Outlook - A Weak Technical Profile Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Oneok (OKE) faces a weak technical outlook with a score of 3.82, and analysts remain divided on its short-term direction.

News Highlights

Recent headlines highlight global movements in the oil and gas sector:

• Nigeria’s Tinubu introduces new executive order to boost the oil and gas sector, including performance-based tax incentives aimed at reducing project costs and increasing revenue. This could indirectly impact Oneok’s competitive landscape in energy markets.
• OPEC+ is considering a larger output increase in July than the 411,000 barrels per day increase seen in previous months, which could weigh on energy prices and affect Oneok’s profitability.
• Russian oil shipments to Syria have increased, with around 2.6 million barrels delivered since the start of the year. This highlights growing global supply dynamics that could impact demand for U.S. energy players like Oneok.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided in their recent ratings, with a simple average score of 3.33 and a performance-weighted average of 2.23. The current price is down 2.69%, and this decline is in line with the neutral-to-negative market expectations. Here’s how the internal diagnostic scores break down:

• Price-to-Book (PB): 0.27 (12.34% internal diagnostic score): Very low valuation.
• Net Income-to-Revenue: 19.65% (10.14% internal diagnostic score): Indicates healthy profitability.
• Asset-MV: 1.59 (17.31% internal diagnostic score): Suggests strong asset valuation.
• Inventory Turnover Days: 13.12 (13.60% internal diagnostic score): Efficient inventory management.
• Profit-MV: 1.31 (9.15% internal diagnostic score): Strong profit relative to market cap.
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit (%): 95.66% (8.93% internal diagnostic score): High retention of profits.

While the fundamentals show some positives—particularly in asset and profit valuation—ratings among analysts are not aligned, suggesting uncertainty in the stock’s short-term prospects.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail investors are both moving in a negative direction. The overall inflow ratio stands at 48.62%, but the trend is negative across all categories: small, medium, large, and extra-large. This suggests a cautious stance among institutional and individual investors, who may be reducing their exposure to Oneok at this juncture.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Oneok is weak, with only 0 bullish indicators and 3 bearish ones. Here are the internal diagnostic scores for key signals:

• MACD Golden Cross: 3.70: A neutral signal indicating a potential short-term reversal, but with limited strength.
• WR Overbought: 2.40: Suggests overvaluation with a poor historical return.
• WR Oversold: 2.78: Indicates undervaluation, but still with low predictive strength.
• MACD Death Cross: 6.39: A bearish signal with strong historical support.

In the last five days, fresh technical signals include a MACD Golden Cross on September 11 and WR Overbought signals earlier in August and September. The MACD Death Cross on September 8 and an WR Oversold signal point to continued volatility and unclear direction.

Key insights from the technical indicators include a dominant bearish signal set and low certainty in trend direction, reinforcing the advice to avoid short-term entry.

Conclusion

Oneok appears to be caught in a bearish technical phase, with a low internal diagnostic score of 3.82 and mixed analyst ratings. Given the weak technical signals and the recent price drop of 2.69%, it may be prudent for investors to consider waiting for a clearer trend or more positive signals before entering. The fundamentals do show some strength in asset and profit valuation, but the current market environment seems to favor caution.