Oneok Outlook - A Challenging Path Ahead

Market Snapshot: Weak Technicals Suggest Caution

The technical side of Oneok (OKE) is currently weak, with an internal diagnostic score of 3.8 (0-10). This score reflects three bearish signals and no bullish ones, pointing to a volatile and directionless market. Investors are advised to avoid the stock for now.

News Highlights: Global Energy Developments

• Colombia's E&P investment is expected to rise by 8% in 2025, reaching $4.68 billion. While this news primarily affects international peers, it highlights ongoing global interest in energy infrastructure.
• Nigeria’s President Tinubu has introduced new executive orders to boost the oil and gas sector. These measures aim to reduce costs and attract investment, which could indirectly benefit global energy firms like Oneok.
• OPEC+ is planning a significant output increase for July, potentially surpassing the 411,000 barrels per day increase previously announced. This signals a more aggressive approach to market supply, which may pressure natural gas prices and impact Oneok’s earnings.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals: Mixed Signals from the Street

Analysts are divided in their assessments. The simple average rating score is 3.33, while the performance-weighted rating score is lower at 1.62, indicating weaker reliability. This shows a lack of consensus among analysts, with 2 out of 3 issuing neutral ratings and only 1 a "Buy."

The recent price trend shows a fall of -2.04%, which aligns with the market’s pessimistic outlook, as reflected in the analysts' weighted expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors:

• Revenue-MV ratio is at 1.60, with an internal score of 3 (0-10).
• Net income-to-revenue margin stands at 19.65%, with a score of 3 (0-10).
• Price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.27, with an internal score of 3 (0-10).
• Profit-MV ratio is 1.31, with a score of 3 (0-10).
• Asset-MV ratio is 1.59, with the highest score among fundamentals at 4 (0-10).
• Inventory turnover days is 13.12 days, with a score of 2 (0-10).

While the asset-to-market value ratio looks strong, the mixed internal scores indicate room for improvement in other areas like net income margins and debt-to-working capital ratios.

Money-Flow Trends: Negative Trends Across the Board

The fund-flow analysis paints a negative picture, with an overall inflow ratio of 0.4860 and a fund-flow score of 7.85 (0-10). This score is categorized as “good,” but the actual trends are negative for all categories, including small, medium, large, and extra-large investors. Retail flows also show a negative trend, suggesting broader pessimism among market participants.

Key Technical Signals: Bearish Momentum

Our internal technical analysis has detected several bearish signals in recent days:

• MACD Golden Cross (2025-09-11): Score of 3.66 (0-10). This is considered an internal diagnostic score and indicates weak momentum.
• WR Overbought (2025-08-28, 2025-08-27, 2025-08-29): Score of 2.78 (0-10). This is a weak signal for overbought conditions.
• WR Oversold (2025-09-08): Score of 2.78 (0-10). This is another weak signal, suggesting the stock is bouncing between extremes.

Key insights from the technical indicators indicate a volatility without clear direction, with 3 bearish signals and no bullish ones. The overall trend remains bearish, and our model recommends avoiding the stock at this time.

Conclusion: Consider Waiting for a Pull-Back

Oneok faces a challenging period with bearish technicals, weak fundamental performance, and mixed analyst opinions. While the fund-flow score is positive, the actual trends are negative. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before considering a position in OKE. Watch the upcoming earnings report and any major regulatory updates that could shift the narrative for this energy sector play.