Oneok Outlook - Bearish Technicals and Mixed Analysts Weigh on Midstream Play

Market Snapshot – A Weak Technical Picture for OKE

One-sentence headline takeaway: Despite some positive fundamental metrics, Oneok is showing weak technical momentum and mixed analyst signals—suggesting caution for now.

News Highlights – Global Energy Policies and Market Shifts

Recent news highlights several developments in the global energy sector, which could influence the future outlook for natural gas and oil companies like Oneok:

• Colombia's E&P investment boost is expected to rise 8% to $4.68 billion in 2025, signaling increased exploration activity in Latin America.
• Nigeria's Tinubu government introduced a new executive order to improve cost efficiency and attract investment in the upstream petroleum sector. This could indirectly benefit global midstream operators if production rises.
• OPEC+ is planning larger output increases than previously agreed for July, potentially softening oil prices and reducing refining margins for midstream companies like Oneok.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals – Mixed Signals and Key Metrics

Analysts remain divided on Oneok, with average rating scores of 3.33 (simple mean) and 2.23 (performance-weighted). This highlights inconsistent expectations, with three institutions—Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital, and Mizuho—offering a mix of "Underperform" and "Neutral" ratings. These scores align with the current price trend of a -4.36% decline, suggesting bearish sentiment is broadly reflected in the market.

Fundamental Insights

• Profit-Market Value (Profit-MV): 1.31 (model score: 3.5, internal diagnostic score (0-10)).
• Net income to Revenue: 19.65% (model score: 3.5).
• Price-to-Book (PB): 0.27 (model score: 3.5).
• Asset-MV: 1.59 (model score: 4.5, internal diagnostic score (0-10)).
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 13.72 (model score: 3.5).

The overall fundamental score is 3.5, suggesting the company has some positive financial metrics but is still underperforming on certain key ratios.

Money-Flow Trends – A Negative Flow Across All Investor Groups

Oneok is currently experiencing negative money-flow trends across all investor types. The overall inflow ratio is 48.64%, with large, extra-large, and block flows all trending negatively. This suggests institutional and retail investors are both withdrawing support, with large players showing more pronounced outflows. While the fund flow score is 7.84 (good), the internal diagnostic score (0-10) reflects underlying bearish sentiment.

Key Technical Signals – Bearish Momentum and Oversold/Overbought Divergence

Technically, Oneok is struggling with a 3.63 score (weak), internal diagnostic score (0-10). The chart has shown three bearish indicators and no bullish ones, with the MACD Golden Cross and Williams %R (WR) signals indicating mixed volatility.

Recent Indicator Highlights

• MACD Golden Cross (score: 3.7, internal diagnostic score): Suggests a potential short-term bullish reversal, but recent performance remains weak.
• WR Oversold (score: 2.62, internal diagnostic score): Indicates a potential short-term bounce, but the long-term trend remains bearish.
• WR Overbought (score: 2.4, internal diagnostic score): Suggests a possible sell-off after short-term strength.
• MACD Death Cross (score: 5.81, internal diagnostic score): A bearish signal that may persist into the next week.

Recent Chart Patterns

• 2025-09-11: MACD Golden Cross (bullish divergence).
• 2025-08-28 to 2025-08-29: WR Overbought (overbought conditions).
• 2025-09-08: WR Oversold + MACD Death Cross (bearish confirmation).

Overall, the technical signals indicate a weak trend with mixed momentum, and the key insight is that the direction remains unclear due to volatile and conflicting indicators.

Conclusion – A Cautionary Stance for OKE

With mixed analyst ratings, negative money flows, and weak technical signals, Oneok appears to be in a challenging phase. The internal diagnostic scores and recent price trends suggest that investors should consider waiting for a clearer breakout or consolidation before entering or adding to positions. Given the bearish momentum, monitoring short-term volatility and earnings developments could be a prudent strategy for now.