Ondas Holdings Surges 8% Amid AI-Driven Sector Turmoil – What’s Fueling the Frenzy?

Summary
• Ondas Holdings (ONDS) rockets 8.02% intraday to $4.85, hitting its 52-week high of $4.98
• Sector-wide jitters over AI disruption amplify volatility, with Microsoft (MSFT) down 0.37% as a sector bellwether
• Options frenzy: 42M shares traded, 2025-09-05 $5 call options dominate with 97,570 contracts

Ondas Holdings is defying the Software & Services sector’s AI-driven malaise, surging to its 52-week peak amid a backdrop of cybersecurity threats and AI monetization debates. With turnover at 17.58% of float and a 69.2 RSI near overbought territory, the stock’s sharp reversal from $4.53 to $4.98 reflects a mix of speculative fervor and sector-specific catalysts.

AI Disruption Fears Ignite Volatility in Software Sector
The Bloomberg article on AI-driven software sector turmoil directly correlates with ONDS’s surge. As investors flee traditional SaaS models (e.g., Salesforce, Adobe) and pivot toward AI-first firms, Ondas—despite limited public AI exposure—benefits from sector-wide rotation. The 8.02% intraday jump coincides with heightened options activity, particularly in 2025-09-05 $5 calls (118.7% IV), suggesting traders are betting on a continuation of the AI-driven sector re-rating.

Software Sector Splits as Microsoft Slides, Ondas Soars
While Microsoft (MSFT) declines 0.37%, Ondas Holdings defies the sector’s AI-driven sell-off. The Bloomberg analysis highlights Microsoft’s AI infrastructure investments as a key differentiator, but ONDS’s 8.02% rally suggests speculative capital is targeting smaller players with perceived AI integration potential. The sector’s 23x forward P/E (vs. Nasdaq 100’s 27x) underscores divergent investor sentiment between AI leaders and laggards.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ONDS Volatility with Strategic Leverage
• RSI: 69.2 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.503 (bullish), Signal: 0.459, Histogram: 0.043
• Bollinger Bands: $4.85 (upper), $3.23 (middle), $1.61 (lower)
• 200D MA: $1.54 (far below price)

ONDS’s 8.02% surge has created a high-conviction setup for short-term traders. Key levels to watch: $4.53 (intraday low) as support and $4.98 (52W high) as resistance. The 69.2 RSI suggests overbought conditions, but the 0.043 MACD histogram and 0.611 gamma on near-term options indicate strong momentum. Two options stand out:

• ONDS20250905C5
- Call, $5 strike, 2025-09-05 expiry
- IV: 118.7% (high volatility), Leverage: 13.83%, Delta: 0.486, Theta: -0.024, Gamma: 0.383, Turnover: $95,523
- IV: High volatility suggests strong price expectations
- Leverage: 13.83% amplifies gains if price holds
- Delta: 0.486 balances directional risk/reward
- Gamma: 0.383 ensures sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover: $95,523 confirms liquidity
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($5.10), payoff = $0.10/share. With 13.83% leverage, this could yield ~20% return if $5.10 is reached by 9/5.

• ONDS20250919C4.5
- Call, $4.5 strike, 2025-09-19 expiry
- IV: 118.41% (high volatility), Leverage: 6.21%, Delta: 0.655, Theta: -0.015, Gamma: 0.241, Turnover: $120,054
- IV: 118.41% signals robust market expectations
- Leverage: 6.21% offers moderate amplification
- Delta: 0.655 suggests strong directional bias
- Theta: -0.015 indicates manageable time decay
- Turnover: $120,054 ensures tradability
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($5.10), payoff = $0.60/share. With 6.21% leverage, this could yield ~12% return if $5.10 is reached by 9/19.

Aggressive bulls should consider ONDS20250905C5 into a test of $4.98 resistance.

Backtest Ondas Holdings Stock Performance
The 8% intraday surge in ONDS has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that following such a significant increase, ONDS tends to perform well over the next few days and weeks. Here's a detailed analysis based on the historical data:1. Immediate Impact: The 3-day win rate is 49.32%, indicating that approximately half of the time, ONDS experiences a positive return in the three days following the intraday surge.2. Short-Term Gains: The 10-day win rate is 46.58%, suggesting that a significant portion of the time, ONDS continues to perform well in the ten days following the surge.3. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate is 49.90%, which is comparable to the shorter-term win rates, indicating that ONDS often maintains its positive momentum over a longer period.4. Return on Investment: The average returns over the 3, 10, and 30 days following the surge are 1.80%, 3.74%, and 6.83%, respectively. This indicates that while the immediate post-surge returns may not be exceptionally high, the stock tends to accumulate gains over time.5. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the surge is 9.98%, which occurred on day 59. This highlights that while the stock typically performs well in the days immediately following the surge, it is not uncommon for it to continue to rise in the days and weeks that follow.In conclusion, an 8% intraday surge in ONDS has historically been followed by positive performance over various short and medium-term horizons. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for further gains in ONDS following such a significant price movement.

Act Now: Ondas Holdings at Pivotal Juncture – Here’s Your Playbook
ONDS’s 8.02% surge reflects a critical inflection point in the AI-driven software sector. While Microsoft’s 0.37% decline highlights the sector’s bifurcation, Ondas’s options activity suggests speculative capital is targeting smaller players for AI re-rating. Traders should prioritize the 2025-09-05 $5 call for high-leverage exposure, but monitor $4.53 support to avoid a breakdown. With the sector’s forward P/E at 23x and AI monetization debates intensifying, now is the time to position for volatility. Watch for $4.98 retest or Microsoft’s AI strategy updates.