Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Surges 16.67% on Israeli Defense Contract and Trump’s $1.5T Budget Proposal – Is This a Short-Lived Rally or a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Israel’s Ministry of Defense selects Ondas subsidiary Airobotics for $1.7B 'Drone Hives' project
• Trump proposes $1.5T 2027 defense budget, doubling current allocation
• Ondas announces $10M in new autonomous systems orders, rebranding to Ondas Inc.

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has surged 16.67% intraday to $14.21, driven by a trifecta of catalysts: a landmark Israeli defense contract, Trump’s budget proposal, and a $10M order win. The stock has traded between $13.15 and $15.07, hitting its 52-week high. With implied volatility spiking and leveraged ETFs like ONDL up 30%, the market is pricing in aggressive growth—despite analysts’ skepticism about valuation sustainability.

Israeli Defense Contract and Trump’s Budget Proposal Ignite Ondas’ Surge
Ondas’ explosive move stems from three interlinked catalysts. First, Israel’s selection of Airobotics for its 'Drone Hives' project—a $1.7B initiative to deploy automated drones along its borders—positions Ondas as a key player in autonomous defense. Second, Trump’s $1.5T 2027 defense budget proposal, a 50% increase from current levels, has amplified demand for U.S. defense contractors. Third, the company announced $10M in new orders for its autonomous systems, signaling strong execution in its core markets. These events have triggered a surge in retail and institutional buying, with Stocktwits sentiment shifting to 'extremely bullish' and message volume hitting 'extremely high' levels.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Rally as Trump’s Budget Proposal Boosts ONDS and AVAV
The broader aerospace and defense sector has rallied alongside ONDS, with Aerovironment (AVAV) up 9.24% on the same day. Trump’s budget proposal has created a tailwind for defense stocks, as investors anticipate increased spending on autonomous systems and military infrastructure. While AVAV’s gains are driven by its drone solutions for U.S. military operations, ONDS benefits from its Israel-focused robotics and rebranding strategy. The sector’s synchronized move underscores the market’s belief in a prolonged defense spending boom, though ONDS’ 73x P/S ratio remains a stark outlier compared to peers.

Options and ETF Strategies for Ondas’ Volatile Rally – Focus on High-Leverage Calls
• RSI: 73.21 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.03 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.63, Histogram: 0.40
• 200D MA: $4.52 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $6.20–$12.51 (price at 14.21, outside upper band)
• ONDL ETF: Up 30.16% (2x leveraged ONDS exposure)

Ondas’ technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock’s momentum is being fueled by speculative buying. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ONDS ETF (ONDL) offers leveraged exposure for aggressive bulls, though its 30% gain already reflects much of the rally. For options, two contracts stand out:

1. ONDS20260116C12
• Call Option, Strike: $12, Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 181.56%, Leverage Ratio: 5.40%, Delta: 0.7767, Theta: -0.1054, Gamma: 0.0732, Turnover: $1.68M
• High IV (181.56%) indicates strong volatility expectations; Leverage Ratio (5.40%) amplifies gains if the stock continues higher; Gamma (0.0732) ensures delta increases rapidly with price movement.
• Payoff Calculation: At a 5% upside (14.92), payoff = max(0, 14.92 - 12) = $2.92. With a 5.40% leverage ratio, this could yield ~24% returns if the stock holds above $12.

2. ONDS20260116C11.5
• Call Option, Strike: $11.5, Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 194.85%, Leverage Ratio: 4.78%, Delta: 0.8074, Theta: -0.1043, Gamma: 0.0625, Turnover: $129K
• IV (194.85%) is extremely high, reflecting aggressive bullish sentiment; Leverage Ratio (4.78%) offers amplified gains; Delta (0.8074) ensures the option tracks the stock closely.
• Payoff Calculation: At a 5% upside (14.92), payoff = max(0, 14.92 - 11.5) = $3.42. With a 4.78% leverage ratio, this could yield ~30% returns if the stock remains above $11.5.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize ONDS20260116C12 for its liquidity and leverage, while ONDS20260116C11.5 offers higher reward potential for a slightly lower strike.

Backtest Ondas Holdings Stock Performance
The On-Demand Stock (ONDS) has demonstrated positive performance following a 17% intraday increase from 2022 to the present date. The backtest data reveals a 3-day win rate of 49.55%, a 10-day win rate of 49.77%, and a 30-day win rate of 54.95%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The average 3-day return is 2.80%, the 10-day return is 6.44%, and the 30-day return is 14.02%, suggesting that ONDS tends to experience gradual gains over various time frames. The maximum return during the backtest period was 22.33%, which occurred on day 59, highlighting the potential for substantial gains if the 17% threshold is surpassed.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Watch for $15.07 Breakout and Trump’s Budget Impact
Ondas’ rally is driven by a perfect storm of geopolitical and corporate catalysts, but its 73x P/S ratio and negative EBIT margins raise valuation concerns. The stock’s next move hinges on three factors: (1) whether the Israeli contract leads to tangible revenue, (2) execution risks in scaling its 'System of Systems' platform, and (3) Trump’s budget proposal gaining legislative traction. For now, the $15.07 52-week high is a critical resistance level. If breached, it could validate the bullish case and trigger a re-rating. Meanwhile, Aerovironment (AVAV) remains the sector leader, up 9.24%, offering a safer alternative for investors wary of ONDS’ speculative profile. Watch for $15.07 breakout or a breakdown below $13.15 to signal trend reversal.