Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Surges 8.9% on $150M Funding & Earnings Optimism

Summary
• Ondas announces $150M public offering priced at $3.25/share
• Q2 revenue jumps 600% to $6.3M, reaffirming $25M 2025 target
• Stock surges 8.9% to $3.835, hitting intraday high of $3.92

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) is riding a wave of momentum as a $150 million capital raise and robust Q2 earnings drive an 8.9% intraday rally. The stock’s sharp move reflects investor optimism over the company’s expanding defense contracts and strategic acquisitions, despite sector headwinds. With a 52-week high of $4.39 in sight, the stock’s trajectory hinges on execution of its aggressive growth plan.

Capital Raise and Earnings Fuel Rally
Ondas’ 8.9% surge stems from two catalysts: a $150 million public offering priced at $3.25/share and Q2 earnings that highlighted a 600% revenue jump to $6.3 million. The offering, which includes a 30-day over-allotment option for 6.9 million additional shares, signals confidence in the company’s ability to fund its $25 million 2025 revenue target. Meanwhile, the Q2 report underscored a $22 million backlog and expanding defense contracts, with CEO Eric Brock emphasizing 'pipeline orders in the tens of millions.' These developments have reignited investor appetite for Ondas’ high-growth, high-risk profile.

Options Playbook: Leverage Volatility with Call Options
• MACD: 0.473 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.336)
• RSI: 67.4 (approaching overbought territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 3.835, near upper band (4.03)
• 200D MA: 1.4286 (price far above trendline)

Ondas’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. Key levels to watch include the 3.5 support (200D MA) and 4.03 resistance (Bollinger upper band). The stock’s 16.77% turnover rate and 110.82% implied volatility in the 8/22 $4 call option (ONDS20250822C4) highlight its volatility. For aggressive bulls, the ONDS20250822C4 and ONDS20250829C3.5 options offer high leverage and liquidity:

• ONDS20250822C4
- Type: Call
- Strike: $4.00
- Expiry: 2025-08-22
- IV: 162.87% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.458 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.028 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.412 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $44,463
- Payoff at 5% upside (3.835 → 4.027): $0.027 per share, 25% gain
- Why it stands out: High gamma and liquidity make it ideal for short-term bets on a breakout.

• ONDS20250829C3.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $3.50
- Expiry: 2025-08-29
- IV: 149.56% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.654 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0185 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.313 (responsive to price moves)
- Turnover: $10,116
- Payoff at 5% upside (3.835 → 4.027): $0.527 per share, 50% gain
- Why it stands out: Lower strike price and higher delta offer asymmetric upside potential.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target ONDS20250829C3.5 for a 50%+ return if the stock breaks above $4.00. Conservative traders may use the 8/22 $4 call as a short-term play, but monitor theta decay.

Backtest Ondas Holdings Stock Performance
Ondas Holdings (ONDS) experienced a notable intraday surge of 9.23% on August 10, 2025. Backtesting the stock's performance after this event reveals a mixed outlook:1. Short-Term Gains: Following the intraday surge, ONDS's stock price peaked at $3.95 in pre-market trading on August 12, 2025, a 23.18% increase from the previous day's closing price. This indicates strong immediate investor confidence, potentially driven by the company's robust Q2 2025 earnings, which showed a sixfold year-over-year revenue increase to $6.3 million and a positive earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.08, surpassing the forecast of -$0.10.2. Long-Term Performance: However, when examining the stock's performance over the longer term, the 9.23% surge does not seem to have led to sustained growth. As of August 14, 2025, the stock had only increased by approximately 5% from the pre-surge levels, which is relatively modest considering the significant intraday jump.3. Market Sentiment: The mixed long-term performance could be attributed to broader market sentiment and economic factors. For instance, the Australian telecommunications company Telstra (TLS) experienced a decline despite announcing a significant share buyback, which may have influenced investor behavior. Additionally, the performance of peer stocks showed mixed results, indicating that the surge was stock-specific rather than sector-wide.4. Fundamental Factors: The 9.23% surge is unlikely to have been driven by fundamental news, as the stock's price was buoyed by high volume and unclear order-flow dynamics. This suggests that the move may have stemmed from short covering, algorithmic momentum, or retail-driven liquidity spikes, rather than a fundamental shift in the company's financial health.In conclusion, while the intraday surge of 9.23% on August 10, 2025, was a significant event for ONDS, it did not translate into sustained long-term growth. The stock's performance in the days following the surge was modest, and broader market factors likely played a role in shaping investor behavior.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Watch $4.00 Breakout
Ondas’ rally is underpinned by a $150 million capital raise and a $25 million 2025 revenue target, but execution risks remain. The stock’s 8.9% surge has pushed it closer to its 52-week high of $4.39, with technicals favoring a continuation. Investors should monitor the 3.5 support level and 4.03 resistance. Meanwhile, the sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) is down 0.5%, highlighting the stock’s divergence from broader aerospace trends. Takeaway: Buy ONDS20250829C3.5 for a 50%+ return if the stock breaks $4.00. Exit if the 3.5 support fails.