Ondas Holdings (ONDS) Surges 8.9% on Strategic Expansion and Defense Contract Wins – Is This a Sustainable Rally?

Summary
• Ondas Holdings (ONDS) surges 8.9% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $8.71.
• $230M stock offering and $3.5M defense contract for Apeiro Motion’s robotics drive momentum.
• New advisory board appointments and $150M Ondas Capital launch signal aggressive growth.

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, surging 8.9% to $8.345 amid a flurry of strategic moves. The stock’s sharp ascent follows a $230M equity offering, a major defense contract win, and the launch of a $150M venture arm. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and turnover surging 15.2%, investors are scrambling to decipher whether this rally is a short-term spike or a catalyst for sustained growth.

Defense Contracts and Capital Inflows Fuel ONDS’ Explosive Move
Ondas Holdings’ 8.9% intraday surge is directly tied to three catalysts: a $230M equity offering, a $3.5M defense contract for Apeiro Motion’s ground robotics, and the launch of Ondas Capital. The $230M offering, including full exercise of the over-allotment option, provides critical liquidity for expansion. Simultaneously, the $3.5M contract validates Apeiro Motion’s role in U.S. defense infrastructure, while Ondas Capital’s $150M deployment into global defense tech underscores the company’s aggressive growth strategy. These moves collectively signal a shift from capital-raising to revenue-generating momentum, attracting both institutional and retail investors.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Gains Momentum as ONDS Surpasses Peers
The Aerospace & Defense sector, led by Lockheed Martin (LMT) up 1.5%, is seeing renewed interest amid heightened global security concerns. ONDS’ 8.9% rally outpaces the sector’s average 2-3% gains, driven by its niche focus on counter-drone tech and robotics. While LMT benefits from broad defense spending, ONDS’ specialized offerings—such as Apeiro Motion’s fiber-optic spools and Iron Drone Raider systems—position it as a high-growth play in the niche autonomous systems segment. This divergence highlights ONDS’ potential to outperform as defense budgets prioritize cutting-edge solutions.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on ONDS’ Volatility and Momentum
• 200-day average: $2.18 (far below current price)
• RSI: 66.00 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.88 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $8.345, above the upper band of $8.08

ONDS’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $8.71 (52-week high) and support at $7.96. The stock’s 15.2% turnover rate and 66 RSI indicate strong short-term momentum, though overbought conditions may trigger a pullback. For leveraged exposure, consider boldETFs like boldXSD (Defense & Aerospace ETF) if available, though no direct ETF is listed. Instead, focus on options with high leverage and gamma to capitalize on volatility.

Top Option 1: ONDS20251003C8
• Code: ONDS20251003C8
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $8
• Expiration: 2025-10-03
• IV: 118.47% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 13.78%
• Delta: 0.6228 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0818 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.3313 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: $200,791
• Payoff (5% upside): $0.415 per share
This call option offers high gamma and moderate delta, ideal for a short-term rally. The high IV reflects market anticipation of further moves, while the rapid theta decay suits aggressive traders.

Top Option 2: ONDS20251010C8.5
• Code: ONDS20251010C8.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $8.5
• Expiration: 2025-10-10
• IV: 124.70% (extreme volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 12.72%
• Delta: 0.4991 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0433 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2134 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $118,888
• Payoff (5% upside): $0.345 per share
This option balances high IV with moderate gamma, offering a safer play for a sustained rally. The 10-day expiration allows for flexibility in timing the move.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should prioritize boldONDS20251003C8 for a short-term pop, while boldONDS20251010C8.5 suits those expecting a gradual push above $8.50.

Backtest Ondas Holdings Stock Performance
Key takeaway • ONDS tends to keep drifting higher after a ≥ 9 % intraday surge – the cumulative excess return peaks around day-18 and remains positive through day-30. • Statistical significance becomes visible from roughly day-11 onward, suggesting the market often rewards this large-up-day signal with multi-week continuation. • However, the win-rate hovers near 50 %, so position sizing and risk control remain essential.Interactive report The full event-study dashboard (all metrics, interactive charts, downloadable data) is ready below. Open it to explore each holding-day curve and drill into any single event date.Notes on defaults 1. Holding-period window: The engine’s standard 30-day look-ahead was applied because the user didn’t specify a horizon. 2. Price series: Daily close prices were used for post-event performance; intraday highs and opens were fetched solely to detect the 9 % spikes.

ONDS’ Rally Gains Legs – Watch for Breakout Above $8.71
Ondas Holdings’ 8.9% surge is a testament to its strategic execution in defense tech and capital deployment. With the stock nearing its 52-week high of $8.71 and a robust options chain, the move appears sustainable if the company maintains its momentum. Investors should monitor the $8.71 level as a critical breakout point and watch for follow-through volume. Meanwhile, the sector leader boldLockheed Martin (LMT) up 1.5% reinforces the broader defense narrative. For traders, the key takeaway is to position for a potential breakout using high-gamma options like boldONDS20251003C8. If $8.71 holds, this could mark the start of a multi-week rally.