Ondas Holdings (ONDS): A High-Growth Play in Autonomous Systems and Defense Tech

In the rapidly evolving landscape of national security and autonomous defense technologies, Ondas Holdings (ONDS) has emerged as a speculative yet strategically positioned player. With a projected 205% revenue surge in 2026, driven by its Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) division and newly acquired subsidiaries, the company is capturing attention from institutional investors and defense analysts alike. However, its aggressive growth narrative must be weighed against valuation risks, including insider sales and the inherent volatility of a sector poised for disruption.

Strategic Positioning and Revenue Catalysts

Ondas' 2026 revenue forecast of $110 million, up from an estimated $36 million in 2025, hinges on its ability to scale its autonomous systems portfolio. In Q3 2025, the company reported $10.1 million in revenue, a 60% quarter-over-quarter increase and a sixfold year-over-year jump. This momentum has been fueled by a $10 million influx in new purchase orders for counter-UAS solutions, integrated drone systems, and robotic ground platforms in late 2025. Notably, Ondas secured a $16.4 million contract for counter-UAS deployments at major European airports and is preparing for a $110 million 2026 revenue target, anchored by a strategic government tender for a large-scale autonomous border-protection system.

The appointment of retired Brigadier General Patrick Huston as Chief Operating Officer (COO) in December 2025 further underscores the company's focus on operational scalability. Huston's military and legal expertise is expected to accelerate integration of recent acquisitions and deepen engagement with U.S. and allied defense clients. This leadership shift aligns with Ondas' broader strategy to position itself as a "System of Systems" provider, fusing air, ground, sensing, and cyber technologies into a unified framework.

Institutional Momentum and Market Sentiment

Ondas has attracted significant institutional interest in 2025. According to a report by QuiverQuant, 121 institutional investors added shares to their portfolios in Q3 2025, including hedge funds like Jane Street Group and Renaissance Technologies. This inflow reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on the global demand for autonomous defense solutions. However, the stock's recent 6% surge has also drawn scrutiny, particularly given insider sales totaling $4.6 million by CEO Eric Brock in December 2025. Brock attributed the sale to tax obligations following a share exchange in OAS, but such activity raises questions about valuation sustainability in a high-growth, low-revenue sector.

AI, Energy, and National Security Convergence

Ondas' strategic value lies in its integration of AI and energy technologies into defense applications. The company's Iron Drone Raider, an autonomous counter-UAS platform, and the Optimus System, an FAA-certified drone for aerial security, exemplify its technological edge. In December 2025, Ondas and Safe Pro Group completed a pilot in the Middle East using AI-powered algorithms to detect landmines and unexploded ordnance, showcasing the potential for humanitarian demining applications. Additionally, a partnership with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG aims to localize production of counter-UAV systems in Europe, shortening deployment timelines and enhancing market access.

Valuation Risks and Speculative Appeal

Despite its strategic strengths, Ondas remains a volatile speculative play. The company's forward revenue multiples are stretched, and insider sales-while partially explained-could signal overvaluation. Institutional investors appear to have hedged their bets: while 121 firms added shares in Q3 2025, others may exit if 2026 revenue targets miss expectations. Moreover, the defense sector's reliance on government contracts introduces execution risk; delays in the border-protection tender or counter-UAS deployments could dampen growth.

Conclusion

Ondas Holdings occupies a unique intersection of AI, energy, and national security, with a 2026 revenue surge that hinges on its ability to execute on high-impact contracts and scale its autonomous systems ecosystem. While institutional momentum and strategic leadership changes bolster its case, investors must remain cautious of valuation risks and insider activity. For those willing to tolerate volatility, ONDS offers a compelling, albeit speculative, bet on the future of multi-domain defense technologies.