Oklo's Q3 2025: Contradictions Surface on Regulatory Timelines, Revenue Recognition, Fuel Supply Chain, and Powerhouse Capacity

Date of Call: None provided

Financials Results

• Operating Margin: $36.3M operating loss in Q3 (inclusive of $9.1M non-cash stock-based compensation); loss before income taxes $29.2M; YTD cash used in operating activities $48.7M; ended Q3 with ~$1.2B in cash and marketable securities.

Guidance:

• Full-year cash used in operating activities expected to be within $65–$80M.
• Aurora INL targeted to commence commercial operations in late 2027–early 2028.
• Atomic Alchemy pilot targeted to be operational by mid‑2026 (June–July 2026).
• Expect DOE Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) approval and finalized OTA by year-end.
• NRC draft evaluation of Principal Design Criteria topical report expected in early 2026.
• Q3 cash on hand ~ $1.2B supporting near-term execution.

Business Commentary:

* Regulatory Acceleration and Timeframe Reduction: - Oklo received three of the 11 granted awards under the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program, enabling acceleration in deployment timelines and reducing regulatory risks. - This alignment with federal priorities reflects strong bipartisan support for advanced nuclear energy, which is seen as essential to meeting America's energy security and economic objectives.

• Fuel Supply Chain and Strategic Investments:
• Oklo announced an investment of up to $1.68 billion for fuel recycling and production facilities, creating over 800 permanent jobs in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

• This investment is aimed at strengthening U.S. fuel capabilities and securing long-term supply, positioning Oklo as a national hub for clean energy manufacturing and innovation.

• Nuclear Fuel Availability and Bridge Supply:

• The U.S. government plans to make up to 20 tons of plutonium available for use as a bridge fuel supply, which could produce approximately 180 metric tons of Aurora fuel.

• This initiative is seen as a game-changer in building more nuclear plants quickly, supporting advanced reactor deployment, and enhancing national energy security.

• Expansion of Advanced Fast Reactor Technology:

• Oklo is leading international partnerships with European companies Moltex and Nucleo to advance fast reactor and fuel manufacturing capabilities.
• These collaborations align with broader trends in the United States and Europe for nuclear innovation and are aimed at accelerating cost reductions and leveraging domestic capital.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management repeatedly emphasized execution momentum: selection for three DOE Reactor Pilot awards, Aurora INL groundbreaking, completed major procurements, fuel assembly flow testing, and a strong balance sheet (~$1.2B). Statements such as "DOE authorization de-risks the Aurora INL regulatory path" and "we are executing, not theorizing" support a constructive, positive tone.

Q&A:

• Question from Ryan James Pfingst (B. Riley): Does the INL plant shifting to the DOE pathway change your requirement to submit a COLA with the NRC for that project, or is that something you still have to do? Has the government shutdown impacted your ability to do that at all?
  Response: DOE authorization replaces the upfront COLA requirement for Aurora INL, enabling construction under DOE oversight while the NRC licensing path proceeds in parallel; this accelerates and de‑risks the regulatory cadence (NRC licensing still expected later).

• Question from Ryan James Pfingst (B. Riley): Has your thinking changed regarding converting pipeline orders into firm PPAs as you approach 2026–2027 and the first plant?
  Response: Oklo is deliberately structuring bespoke, potentially creative offtake agreements (prepayments, fuel/prepayment, tailored PPAs) rather than rushing standard PPAs, and expects to convert pipeline customers into constructive offtakes as projects mature.

• Question from Brian Lee (Goldman Sachs) — asked by Tyler Bisseton: Are you still targeting commercial operations at INL between late 2027 and early 2028, or does shifting to the DOE pathway accelerate that timeline? What milestones should we watch beyond January?
  Response: Target remains late 2027–early 2028; DOE pathway accelerates construction and fuel‑fabrication work (e.g., INL fuel facility prep), enabling faster progress but not a confirmed earlier commercial start date.

• Question from Brian Lee (Goldman Sachs) — asked by Tyler Bisseton: You mentioned 20 tons of plutonium could be made into about 180 metric tons of Aurora fuel—what underpins that conversion math and assumptions?
  Response: Plutonium is more fissile so less mass is required; blended plutonium fuel behaves like HALEU in a fast reactor (~11% Pu is roughly equivalent to ~19% HALEU), underpinning the ~20‑ton → ~180‑ton equivalence and enabling an enrichment‑free bridge fuel.

• Question from Becram Baghri (Citi): Will the Pluto test reactor be the template for future reactors? Differences to Aurora; will it be ~75 MW; what main learnings do you expect?
  Response: Pluto is a smaller, plutonium‑optimized fast test reactor focused on fast‑neutron irradiation, plutonium fuel handling, and R&D (not a 75MW Aurora template); main learnings are materials/fuel irradiation data and plutonium fabrication/operations experience.

• Question from Becram Baghri (Citi): On slide nine you list CapEx by component—can you share directional dollar terms?
  Response: Directional dollars are expected to align with the component breakdown; detailed CapEx dollar allocations are being refined and likely to be shared in 2026.

• Question from Jed Dorsheimer (William Blair): Is the 14 GW backlog still intact and what’s the customer mix? Any update on conversion and Atomic Alchemy revenue expectations?
  Response: Backlog remains ~14GW, predominantly data center/hyperscaler customers; active term‑sheet negotiations and prepayment structures are progressing; Atomic Alchemy's lab‑scale facility could generate modest (single‑million dollar range) revenue and margin in H1 2026.

• Question from Jeffrey Campbell (Seaport Research): When doing isotope irradiation with an Aurora, can that be done without interrupting your fuel cycle? Also, any update on the proposed natural gas partnership with Liberty Energy?
  Response: Isotope work will generally be scheduled to minimize disruption to power operations and some assets can provide additional flexibility; gas‑to‑nuclear partnerships remain strategically valuable and viable (no diminished appetite), with near‑term emphasis on on‑grid deployments.

• Question from Derek John Soderberg (Cantor Fitzgerald): Are prepayments required to secure long‑lead items and can you quantify required capital to secure those items as you scale?
  Response: Some vendors require modest prepayments (around ~10%); the recent $540M ATM and ~$1.2B cash position mean capital is not expected to be a constraint for securing long‑lead items.

• Question from Sherif Ehab Elmaghrabi (BTIG): For the Fuel Line Pilot at INL and GEWE selection, is there an immediate economic opportunity once the facility comes online or does NRC approval need to monetize?
  Response: GEWE authorization enables construction and potential DOE‑facing sales; commercial monetization to broader markets likely follows NRC conversion—Atomic Alchemy and some pilot facilities may operate under GEWE initially with optional NRC licensing later.

• Question from Craig Kenneth Shere (Tully Brothers): Prospects for rounding up remaining fuel to maximize the maiden INL powerhouse to 75 MW and if using plutonium mixes later to reach full capacity; regulatory or proliferation implications?
  Response: Management is increasingly confident diverse feedstocks (including blended plutonium) will enable near‑full 75MW operation soon after start; regulatory and proliferation concerns are manageable within DOE/NRC safeguard frameworks and using plutonium in reactors destroys stockpiles via fission.

Contradiction Point 1

Regulatory Timeline and Authorization Process

It involves changes in the regulatory timeline and authorization process for Oklo's nuclear projects, which could impact deployment timelines and regulatory risks.

Is the INL plant's commercial operations timeline accelerated by the shift to DOE authorization? - Brian Lee (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q3: The authorization pathway allows faster deployment, targeting commercial operations in the 2027-2028 timeline. The flexibility of building while iterating accelerates timelines, reducing regulatory risk. - Jake DeWitte(CEO)

What caused the acceleration of TerraPower's regulatory timeline, and how does this impact Oklo? - Derek John Soderberg (Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division)

2025Q2: TerraPower's timeline was accelerated by NRC reforms, reducing costs and expediting reviews. Oklo expects similar benefits from regulatory reforms. Executive orders could expand authorization options, accelerating timelines. - Jacob Dewitte(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Revenue Recognition and Partnership Strategy

It reflects differing perspectives on revenue recognition and partnership strategies, which are critical for understanding Oklo's financial outlook and business model.

Is there a plan to lock in PPA agreements with customers? - Ryan James Pfingst (B. Riley)

2025Q3: The strategy is to find and build constructive partnerships, not rushing PPAs. The focus is on developing first, then converting into PPAs later, including early prepayments. The market is receptive and supportive of this approach. - Jake DeWitte(CEO)

Can Oklo accelerate revenue recognition through partnerships such as with Liberty Energy? - Sherif Ehab Elmaghrabi (BTIG, LLC)

2025Q2: Oklo and Liberty are exploring partnerships that may lead to revenue recognition, though it's early days for specific terms. If there is a way to participate in power generation, it could lead to earlier revenue recognition. - Richard Craig Bealmear(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Fuel Supply Chain and Strategic Partnerships

It involves the company's approach to securing fuel for its reactors, which is critical for operational readiness and project timelines.

What is the potential for prepayments on long-lead supply chain items? - Jed Dorsheimer(William Blair)

2025Q3: Some prepayments are being considered, but not significant, in the 10% range. The company focuses on ensuring access to long lead items without making capital a constraint. - Jake DeWitte(CEO)

What regulatory authority does the DOD currently have over nuclear power, and how can the Department accelerate reactor deployments? - Ryan Pfingst(B. Riley)

2025Q1: Oklo designs leveraging existing supply chains. Fuel is the main challenge, with HALEU pricing dynamics a factor. Other major lead items like steam generators are estimated around 18 months. - Jake DeWitte(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Powerhouse Capacity and Regulatory Approval

It involves the company's approach to its powerhouse capacity and regulatory approval processes, which directly impacts project timelines and scalability.

What are the prospects for maximizing the INL powerhouse capacity to 75 megawatts? - Derek John Soderberg (Cantor Fitzgerald)

2025Q3: Oklo is confident in securing sufficient fuel to enable full capacity, possibly utilizing plutonium feedstock. - Jake DeWitte(CEO)

What prompted the increase from 50 MW to 75 MW - existing pipeline customers or current potential customers? Do you see economic benefits from the increased output? - Ryan Pfingst (B. Riley Securities)

2024Q4: The decision was based on customer interest and market demands. The 50-75 megawatt range aligns with customer requirements, particularly in data centers. - Jacob DeWitte(CEO)