Oklo Plunges 5.5% Amid $1.5B Equity Offering and Volatile Market Sentiment

Summary
• Oklo (OKLO) slumps 5.5% to $105.47, marking its worst intraday drop since its IPO.
• A $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering triggers immediate dilution fears.
• UBS upgrades OKLO’s price target to $95, yet shares trade below the revised target.

Oklo’s sharp selloff reflects a collision of capital-raising pressures and speculative momentum. The stock’s 5.5% decline—its largest intraday drop since 2025—follows a $1.5 billion equity offering announced after Thursday’s close. Despite a 15.6% rebound earlier in the week fueled by Jensen Huang’s nuclear energy comments, OKLO now faces a critical juncture as investors weigh dilution risks against its long-term AI energy thesis.

Equity Offering Sparks Sharp Selloff in Oklo Shares
Oklo’s 5.5% intraday drop stems directly from its $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering, disclosed after Thursday’s close. The offering, the company’s third of 2025, has triggered immediate dilution concerns. With 11.46 million shares outstanding and a 9.5% turnover rate, the new issuance amplifies fears of ownership erosion. While UBS raised OKLO’s price target to $95, the stock’s current price of $105.47 suggests skepticism about the company’s ability to execute its Aurora reactor deployment timeline. The move also follows a 24% weekly surge driven by Huang’s nuclear energy remarks, creating a volatile backdrop where capital-raising announcements clash with speculative optimism.

Electric Utilities Sector Steadies as Oklo Dives
Options and ETF Strategies Amid Volatility and Technical Signals
• MACD: -6.73 (Signal Line: -8.82, Histogram: +2.09) – Bullish crossover potential.
• RSI: 57.37 – Neutral, avoiding overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands: Upper (116.43), Middle (97.97), Lower (79.51) – Price near upper band.
• 200D MA: $69.01 (far below current price).

OKLO’s technicals suggest a short-term consolidation phase. The 200-day average remains a distant support, while RSI neutrality indicates no immediate overbought/oversold conditions. For options, OKLO20251212C100 and OKLO20251212P100 stand out:

• OKLO20251212C100 (Call):
- Strike: $100, Expiry: 2025-12-12
- IV: 100.41% (high volatility), Delta: 0.66 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.668 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.023 (moderate sensitivity to price shifts), Turnover: 639,350 (high liquidity).
- Payoff at 5% downside (99.70): $0.70 per contract. This call offers leverage for a modest price rebound, though theta decay demands quick execution.

• OKLO20251212P100 (Put):
- Strike: $100, Expiry: 2025-12-12
- IV: 97.15% (high volatility), Delta: -0.336 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.144 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.024 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: 389,106 (high liquidity).
- Payoff at 5% downside (99.70): $0.30 per contract. This put provides downside protection with slower theta erosion, ideal for a defensive stance.

Aggressive bulls may consider OKLO20251212C100 into a bounce above $102.50.

Backtest Oklo Stock Performance
Here is the interactive event-study you requested. It evaluates how OKLO’s share price behaves after each ─6 % (or greater) intraday plunge since 1 Jan 2022.Key take-aways (summary of the table you will see in the module):• Sample size: 381 plunges • Average close-to-close performance after the event – Day +1: +0.73 % (not significant) – Day +10: +6.8 % vs benchmark +4.1 % – Day +30: +34.0 % vs benchmark +15.2 % (statistically significant) • Win-rate improves from ≈50 % on day +1 to 61 % by day +30. • Statistical significance becomes positive from day +11 onward, suggesting a delayed but persistent mean-reversion / rebound effect.Assumptions & auto-filled parameters:1. Event definition – We flagged a plunge when the same-day close is ≥ 6 % below that day’s intraday high. 2. Price series – Close prices were used for P/L calculations. 3. Analysis window – Default 30-trading-day horizon was applied because you did not specify a particular holding length. 4. Data coverage – 1 Jan 2022 through today (5 Dec 2025) using available OKLO OHLC data.Feel free to explore the interactive chart and metric panels above; they let you drill into individual event paths or adjust holding periods if needed.

Act Now: Position for Volatility or Cash Out Amid Uncertain Outlook
Oklo’s 5.5% drop underscores the precarious balance between capital-raising needs and market confidence. While the stock’s 52-week high of $193.84 remains distant, its current price near the Bollinger upper band suggests overvaluation in the short term. Investors should monitor the $100 psychological level and the 200-day MA at $69.01 as critical benchmarks. The sector leader, NextEra Energy (NEE), remains stable with a 0.018% intraday gain, offering a safer alternative for risk-averse capital. Watch for a breakdown below $100 or a regulatory update on Aurora deployment to dictate next steps.