Oklo Plummets 10.5% Amid Regulatory Wins and AI-Driven Volatility: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Oklo (OKLO) tumbles 10.5% to $92.05, erasing a 4% intraday rebound after a DOE fuel approval.
• Intraday range widens to $90.82–$109.70, with volume surging to 11.9M shares (9.9% of float).
• Options frenzy: 2025-11-28 $90–$95 put/call contracts trade at 130%+ implied volatility.

Oklo’s volatile session reflects a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts—DOE fuel approval, Siemens partnership—and bearish pressures from AI sector rotations and pre-revenue skepticism. With the stock trading near its 52W low of $17.14, investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a buying opportunity or a liquidity trap.

Regulatory Green Light vs. AI Sector Rotation: A Clash of Narratives
Oklo’s 10.5% intraday drop stems from a collision of conflicting signals. The Department of Energy’s approval of Oklo’s Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility at Idaho National Lab—a critical regulatory hurdle—should have bolstered confidence. However, the broader market’s rotation into AI-driven tech stocks (spurred by Nvidia’s $57B Q3 beat) has siphoned liquidity from speculative energy plays. Meanwhile, Oklo’s Q3 earnings—projected to show a $36.3M loss with zero revenue—have intensified doubts about its $16B valuation. The stock’s sharp correction mirrors the sector’s broader selloff, as nuclear energy ETFs like URA/NLR also face outflows.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with High-Gamma Puts
• 200-day MA: $66.99 (far below current price)
• RSI: 31.48 (oversold territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $92.05 (near lower band at $86.05)
• MACD: -8.64 (bearish divergence)

Oklo’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, but the lack of revenue and looming Q3 earnings (Nov 20) create a high-risk environment. For directional bets, the 2025-11-28 $90 put (OKLO20251128P90) and $95 put (OKLO20251128P95) stand out:

• OKLO20251128P90: Delta -0.38, IV 123.13%, Leverage 17.32%, Theta -0.194, Gamma 0.021
• OKLO20251128P95: Delta -0.495, IV 116.91%, Leverage 12.31%, Theta -0.133, Gamma 0.023

These puts offer high gamma (price sensitivity) and moderate delta, ideal for a 5% downside scenario. A 5% drop to $87.45 would yield a 115.58% payoff for the $90 put and 78.82% for the $95 put. High IV and liquidity (turnover: 295,688 for P90) ensure tradability. Aggressive short-sellers may target the $90 put for a 115%+ return if the stock breaks below $90.

Backtest Oklo Stock Performance
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Crossroads of Catalysts: Buy the Dip or Sell the Hope?
Oklo’s 10.5% selloff has created a critical inflection point. While the DOE fuel approval and Siemens partnership validate its long-term thesis, the stock’s pre-revenue status and AI sector rotation pose immediate risks. Technicals suggest a potential bounce from oversold levels, but earnings and sector sentiment will dictate the near-term path. Watch for a breakdown below $90 (support at $86.05) or a rebound above $109.70 (intraday high). For context, sector leader Exelon (EXC) fell 0.325% today, signaling mixed energy sector sentiment. Investors should prioritize liquidity and avoid overleveraging in this high-volatility environment.