Oklo (OKLO) Surges 8.79% on $5.3M HALEU Deal Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

Oklo (OKLO) surged 8.79% on October 7, 2025, reaching its highest level since October 2025, with an intraday gain of 15.56%. The rally followed a pivotal U.S.-U.K. investment deal worth $350 billion, which included a $5.3 million HALEU fuel supply agreement between Urenco and the U.S. HALEU, a critical component for Oklo’s reactors, has positioned the company as a beneficiary of growing interest in nuclear energy for AI and data center applications. However, analysts caution that Oklo’s direct involvement in the deal is limited to the HALEU component, with broader partnerships in the agreement excluding the firm.

The stock’s volatility reflects mixed signals from strategic developments and investor sentiment. While the HALEU deal validated Oklo’s technology, regulatory hurdles remain a key risk. The company has yet to secure a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its Aurora Powerhouse reactor and anticipates no revenue until late 2027 or 2028. Goldman Sachs’ recent "neutral" rating further underscored concerns, citing Oklo’s lack of revenue, heavy capital requirements, and regulatory delays. The firm projected a 12-month price target of $117, suggesting a potential 11% decline from current levels.

Insider selling has also weighed on confidence. Over two weeks, executives and directors offloaded shares worth $18.1 million, including $9.4 million by CFO Craig Bealmear. These moves, combined with Goldman Sachs’ analysis, contributed to a 16% two-day drop in Oklo’s stock. Despite this, institutional investors have maintained cautious optimism, with entities like Vanguard Group and UBS increasing stakes. The stock has still surged 470% year-to-date, driven by broader enthusiasm for nuclear energy’s role in decarbonizing AI infrastructure.

Political dynamics under the Trump administration, including executive orders to expedite nuclear approvals, have fueled speculation. Oklo’s CEO participated in the policy rollout, and the company’s alignment with pro-nuclear policies has drawn attention. However, regulatory timelines remain uncertain, and recent insider selling has raised questions about whether executives view the stock as overvalued. With no commercial operations expected until 2027–2028, Oklo’s ability to capture a share of the $75 billion small modular reactor market hinges on overcoming technical and financial challenges. For now, the stock remains a speculative bet, with its trajectory dependent on regulatory progress and customer contract validation.