Oklo (OKLO) Plummets 4.87% Amid Groundbreaking Ceremony and Volatile Options Activity

Summary
• Oklo (OKLO) breaks ground on its first Aurora Powerhouse in Idaho, yet shares plunge 4.87% to $135.70 amid intraday volatility.
• Intraday range spans $133.38 to $144.45, with 7.09 million shares traded—6.65% of its float.
• Options activity surges, with 650,542 contracts traded on the $135 put (OKLO20251003P135) and 88,356 on the $136 put (OKLO20251003P136).

Oklo’s stock faces a sharp correction despite a major milestone in its Aurora Powerhouse project. The $135.70 price point, down from a 52-week high of $144.45, reflects a mix of regulatory optimism and market skepticism. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing overbought conditions, traders are recalibrating positions ahead of key support levels.

Groundbreaking Ceremony Sparks Regulatory and Market Uncertainty
Oklo’s 4.87% intraday drop follows its groundbreaking ceremony for the Aurora-INL reactor, a sodium-cooled fast reactor project under the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program. While the event underscores U.S. government support for advanced nuclear energy, investors are wary of regulatory hurdles. The NRC’s 2022 rejection of Oklo’s reactor license application lingers in the background, and the company’s reliance on DOE fuel supplies raises questions about long-term operational independence. Additionally, the stock’s sharp decline coincides with a surge in put options trading, suggesting bearish positioning as traders hedge against potential delays in commercialization.

Options and Technical Analysis: Navigating Volatility in a High-Beta Play
• MACD: 15.41 (above signal line 8.31), RSI: 95.62 (overbought), 200-day MA: $46.17 (far below current price).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $135.70 near upper band ($136.96), signaling potential reversal.
• Support/Resistance: Key support at $133.38 (intraday low), resistance at $144.45 (52-week high).

Oklo’s technicals suggest a volatile short-term outlook. The RSI at 95.62 indicates overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram (7.09) hints at momentum divergence. Traders should monitor the $133.38 support level, with a breakdown potentially triggering a test of the 200-day MA. The stock’s high beta and leveraged options make it a high-risk, high-reward proposition.

Top Options Picks:
• OKLO20251003P135 (Put)
- Strike: $135, Expiration: 2025-10-03, IV: 125.84%, Leverage: 12.43%, Delta: -0.4497, Theta: -0.2625, Gamma: 0.0140, Turnover: 650,542
- IV (high volatility) and Leverage (12.43%) amplify potential gains if the stock drops below $135. Delta (-0.45) ensures moderate sensitivity to price moves, while Gamma (0.014) suggests responsiveness to further declines.
- Payoff Calculation: At a 5% downside (ST = $129.00), payoff = max(0, $129 - $135) = $0. However, the high IV and Leverage make this contract ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.
• OKLO20251003P136 (Put)
- Strike: $136, Expiration: 2025-10-03, IV: 129.66%, Leverage: 11.50%, Delta: -0.4623, Theta: -0.2708, Gamma: 0.0137, Turnover: 88,356
- IV (129.66%) and Leverage (11.50%) offer strong upside if the stock gaps down. Delta (-0.46) and Gamma (0.0137) balance risk and reward, while Theta (-0.27) indicates time decay is manageable for a 10-day horizon.
- Payoff Calculation: At ST = $129.00, payoff = max(0, $129 - $136) = $0. The contract’s high IV and Leverage justify its use for directional bets on a sharp correction.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls may consider OKLO20251003P135 into a breakdown below $133.38. For a balanced approach, OKLO20251003P136 offers leverage with moderate risk. Watch for a test of the 200-day MA ($46.17) as a long-term floor.

Backtest Oklo Stock Performance
I ran into a technical issue when I tried to pull OKLO’s intraday OHLC data automatically—the data-fetch call failed on the provider’s side. To move forward we have a few options:1. Retry the data pull (I can adjust the request format and try again). 2. Use an alternative definition that’s easier to fetch—e.g., days where the closing price finished ≥ 5 % below the previous close—and back-test the post-event performance with that rule. 3. If you already have a list of the –5 % intraday-plunge dates, you can paste them here and we can run the event back-test directly. 4. Defer until the data source is stable.Let me know which path you’d prefer and we’ll proceed immediately.

Oklo at a Crossroads: Regulatory Hurdles and Volatility Define Near-Term Path
Oklo’s 4.87% decline reflects a tug-of-war between regulatory optimism and operational uncertainties. The Aurora-INL project’s progress is a milestone, but the stock’s technicals and options activity signal caution. Traders should prioritize short-term options like OKLO20251003P135 and OKLO20251003P136 to capitalize on volatility. Meanwhile, the sector leader Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), down 0.69%, underscores broader market jitters. For Oklo, a breakdown below $133.38 could trigger a deeper correction, while a rebound above $144.45 would validate its bullish narrative. Action: Monitor the $133.38 support level and consider short-dated puts for directional exposure.