OKE Soars 2.99% on Dividend Stability and Analyst Optimism—Is This the Start of a Rebound?

Summary
• ONEOK (OKE) surges 2.99% to $83.67, outpacing its 52-week average price change
• Analysts project a $104.38 average target price, implying 27% upside from current levels
• $1.03 quarterly dividend maintains 5.2% forward yield, bolstering investor appeal
• Options activity intensifies, with 287 contracts traded for the $85 call expiring August 15

ONEOK Inc. (OKE) is trading at its highest level in months, driven by a combination of dividend stability, bullish analyst sentiment, and strategic positioning in the natural gas sector. With the stock hitting an intraday high of $83.68 and trading above its 200-day moving average, the move reflects growing confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and its ability to deliver consistent shareholder returns.

Dividend Certainty and Analyst Bullishness Fuel Rally
The 2.99% intraday gain in ONEOK (OKE) is primarily attributed to the company’s decision to maintain its $1.03 per share quarterly dividend, offering a 5.2% forward yield—a critical draw for income-focused investors. This stability comes amid a broader market focus on dividend resilience, particularly in energy infrastructure. Simultaneously, 17 Wall Street analysts have raised their average price target to $104.38, reflecting optimism about OKE’s NGL expansion and synergy-driven projects. The stock’s performance also aligns with reduced institutional selling pressure, as Lipe & Dalton’s recent stake trimming appears to have been offset by renewed institutional accumulation.

Natural Gas Transmission Sector Gains Momentum as OKE Outpaces KMI
The Natural Gas Transmission and Storage sector has seen mixed momentum, with ONEOK (OKE) outperforming sector leader Kinder Morgan (KMI), which rose 1.49% intraday. While KMI’s rally reflects broader sector tailwinds, OKE’s stronger performance underscores its unique catalysts: a stable dividend, clearer growth visibility in NGL capacity, and a more favorable earnings multiple (20.7x vs. KMI’s 16.2x). The sector’s long-term bearish trend, however, remains a cautionary backdrop, with OKE trading 30% below its 200-day moving average of $94.13.

Positioning for OKE’s Rebound: Key Options and Technical Catalysts
• 200-day average: $94.13 (below) • RSI: 49.65 (neutral) • MACD: -0.439 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 79.36–82.71 (current price above upper band)

ONEOK’s technical profile suggests a short-term bullish breakout above its 50-day MA ($81.94) and 200-day MA ($94.13) could trigger a retest of the $85–$90 range. The stock’s 49.65 RSI reading indicates no overbought conditions, leaving room for further gains if institutional buyers continue to accumulate. For leveraged exposure, consider OKE20250815C85 and OKE20250919C85, which balance liquidity and gamma sensitivity.

• OKE20250815C85: Call, $85 strike, Aug 15 expiry, IV 26.35%, leverage 45.19%, delta 0.424, theta -0.0375, gamma 0.0629, turnover 46,483. IV suggests moderate volatility, delta/gamma balance ideal for a 5% upside move. Projected payoff: $3.79 per contract (45.19% leverage amplifies returns).
• OKE20250919C85: Call, $85 strike, Sep 19 expiry, IV 25.49%, leverage 28.83%, delta 0.455, theta -0.0247, gamma 0.0441, turnover 2,188. Slightly lower IV and higher turnover suggest better entry timing. Projected payoff: $3.79 per contract with 28.83% leverage.

Aggressive bulls should target a close above $83.68 (intraday high) to validate the breakout. If $81.03 (middle Bollinger Band) holds, the $85 call options could deliver 30–40% returns in a 2–3 week window.

Backtest Oneok Stock Performance
The backtest of OKE's performance after a 3% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 55.37%, the returns over the 10-day and 30-day periods are negative, with a 10-day return of -0.01% and a 30-day return of 0.07%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.28%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while there is potential for gains, they are modest and occur with a significant lag.

OKE’s Bull Case Gains Legs—Act Fast Before Sector Rotation
ONEOK’s rally appears poised to extend as long as it holds above $81.64 (intraday low) and gains institutional support, particularly from the 17 Wall Street analysts backing a $104.38 target. The stock’s 5.2% yield and $104.38 price target suggest a potential 27% upside, though the long-term bearish trend (200-day MA at $94.13) warns of a possible consolidation phase. Investors should monitor KMI’s 1.49% move as a sector barometer and watch for a close above $83.68 to confirm the breakout. For immediate action, OKE20250815C85 offers the best combination of leverage and liquidity. If $81.03 breaks, re-evaluate short-side options.