Oil Markets in Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of Trump-Putin Meeting

Oil markets have been in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, with ICE Brent trading near $66 per barrel. Thin trading liquidity and rangebound prices have marked the week, with LNG prices shedding $0.50/MMBtu. The IEA predicts a 2.5 million b/d output hike in 2025-2026, contradicting OPEC. Venture Global has won an arbitration case against Shell over LNG cargoes, and India has restarted purchases of Russian oil after discounts widened to almost -$3 per barrel. The US court has rescheduled the auction of Venezuela-held refiner Citgo Petroleum, with a unit of Elliott Investment Management landing an $8.82 billion offer. Angola's oil production continues to linger around 1.1 million b/d and is set to dip further, with top driller Azule Energy expecting gas to be the main driver of production growth.

Oil markets have been in a state of anticipation ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, with ICE Brent trading near $66 per barrel. The market's thin trading liquidity and rangebound prices have characterized the week, with LNG prices shedding $0.50/MMBtu. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 2.5 million b/d output hike in 2025-2026, contradicting OPEC's projections. Meanwhile, Venture Global has emerged victorious in an arbitration case against Shell over LNG cargoes, while India has restarted purchases of Russian oil after discounts widened to almost -$3 per barrel. Additionally, the US court has rescheduled the auction of Venezuela-held refiner Citgo Petroleum, with a unit of Elliott Investment Management landing an $8.82 billion offer. Amid these developments, Angola's oil production continues to hover around 1.1 million b/d and is expected to decline further, with top driller Azule Energy expecting gas to be the primary driver of production growth.

The Trump-Putin summit is expected to begin around 3 p.m. EST on Friday, with the market struggling to anticipate its outcome. Some analysts are concerned that President Trump could agree to Russian terms that could include territorial concessions by Ukraine. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that decisions about Ukraine taken in his absence would be meaningless. Trump has signaled that he would work for a meeting that would include Zelenskyy at a later stage. According to A/S Global Risk Management’s chief analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, the Friday meeting is unlikely to deliver significant results. Rasmussen told Bloomberg, "If a follow-up meeting is agreed, Trump may seek to place responsibility on Putin and Zelenskiy" [1].

The geopolitical risk premium tied to the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska is now a secondary driver, and unless talks break down sharply, the macro drag from the demand outlook may keep a lid on rallies, with Brent potentially struggling above USD 70 per barrel, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank [1].

In another significant development, Venture Global has won a legal battle with Shell over its failure to deliver liquefied natural gas under long-term contracts from the Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana. The Arlington-based company denied the claim, stating that it delayed moving to commercial operations due to a faulty electric system. Venture Global generated second quarter revenues of approximately $3.1bn and net income of $0.4bn. The company claims that its ability to incrementally export commissioning cargoes during the construction of its facilities has brought LNG to the market years faster than ever before and strengthened global energy security [2].

India has restarted purchases of Russian oil after discounts widened to almost -$3 per barrel. This move follows a period of sanctions and trade restrictions, indicating a potential shift in geopolitical dynamics. Additionally, the US court has rescheduled the auction of Venezuela-held refiner Citgo Petroleum, with a unit of Elliott Investment Management landing an $8.82 billion offer. The rescheduling of the auction reflects the ongoing legal and geopolitical complexities surrounding the ownership and operation of Citgo Petroleum [3].

Angola's oil production continues to linger around 1.1 million b/d and is set to dip further. Top driller Azule Energy expects gas to be the main driver of production growth. Azule Energy is considering another gas exploration well after leading the country’s first drilling campaign targeting gas and hitting success last month. The company is optimistic about Angola’s untapped gas potential and anticipates a second well to be drilled within two years. Initial estimates show the Gajajeira-01 discovery exceeding one trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and having up to 100 million barrels of condensate. Angola expects gas production to rise more than 20% in the next five years to meet growing domestic demand and export to Europe and Asia [3].

References:
[1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Drop-as-Traders-Await-Trump-Putin-Summit.html
[2] https://www.gasworld.com/story/venture-global-wins-arbitration-case-against-shell/2163069.article/
[3] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3RR14P:0-angola-seeks-gas-growth-as-oil-output-flatlines-despite-opec-exit/