Oil Daily | Trump's Tariffs and Global Trade Tensions Threaten to Reduce Oil Demand and Market Stability

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Trump's tariffs pose a risk to global free trade, potentially affecting oil demand. Analysts express concerns over global demand and market uncertainty due to retaliatory measures from trade partners like China, which could replace U.S. energy imports. Economic impacts may reduce oil demand further.

Mexico's crude oil production has been revised down for the year due to natural declines. The country aims to boost production next year through new projects and exploration. Pemex faces challenges with production levels and oil quality, but plans to focus on new deepwater deposits.

India increased U.S. crude oil imports by 67% in March to reduce its trade surplus. The country may scrap its LNG import tax to increase U.S. energy purchases, reducing surplus and avoiding tariffs. Russian crude imports also rose, driven by lower prices and non-sanctioned shipments.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Russia ordered a 90-day halt on oil loading at a berth in Novorossiysk due to safety checks. The impact is minimal as the berth is rarely used. However, Kazakhstan's export restrictions by Russia could affect foreign operators more significantly.

OPEC producers will discuss maintaining production quotas amid recent overproduction. The alliance started easing cuts, adding 138,000 bpd in April. Analysts expect Kazakhstan's boosted output to cause tensions, and OPEC may raise production levels in May.

【Latest Oil Policies】

BP's Cypre development in Trinidad and Tobago delivered first gas, part of its strategy to increase upstream production by 2027. The company plans 10 major projects by 2027, increasing its investment in oil and gas while cutting clean energy spending.

U.S. Energy Secretary reinstates the Deferred Resignation Program to incentivize voluntary resignations and reduce the federal workforce. The initiative is part of Trump's plan to cut bureaucracy and make federal agencies more efficient.

【Industry News】

LNG Canada received its first import cargo for equipment testing as the facility nears completion. The project, a joint venture including Shell and Petronas, aims to export LNG to Asian markets by mid-2025, potentially boosting Canadian natural gas prices.

【Company News】

ConocoPhillips considers selling oil and gas assets in Oklahoma acquired from Marathon Oil. The decision follows a broader strategy to streamline its portfolio by divesting non-core assets, focusing on the Permian Basin and Bakken.

【Others】

Energy markets remain buffered after new tariffs exempt oil imports. However, broader equity markets reacted negatively, fearing a global trade slowdown. U.S. Treasury Secretary urged investors to embrace the clarity brought by the administration's trade position, despite potential impacts on crude demand.

Concerns over a failed nuclear deal with Iran and upcoming tariff announcements create market uncertainty. Trump's recent tariffs on auto imports could have significant economic impacts, with experts warning of reduced capacity and increased unemployment.