Oil Daily | Trump Cancels Chevron's Waiver, Pemex Exports Plunge, Kazakhstan Boosts Oil Amid Drone Risks

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

President Donald Trump has canceled Chevron's sanction waiver, allowing it to export Venezuelan crude. This quarter of Venezuela's oil output, vital for its economy, was crucial for revenue. Chevron aimed to boost exports, but Trump's action reverses Biden's concessions due to unmet electoral conditions and migration issues in Venezuela.

Mexico’s Pemex saw a 44% decline in oil exports last month, hitting a low not seen since 1990. Shunned by Gulf Coast refiners due to quality issues, Pemex faces financial troubles, impacting its ability to reduce crude salt content. Despite this, Pemex plans to increase production via new exploration.

Kazakhstan continues oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium despite damages from a Ukrainian drone attack. Kazakhstan's oil output hit a record high due to increased production at Tengiz oilfield. The country plans to boost exports via Turkey, reducing reliance on Russia, amid rising drone attack risks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Iran's enriched uranium stockpile has increased significantly, raising concerns about nuclear weapon capabilities. This development follows increased uranium enrichment after Iran was censured by the IAEA. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions target Iranian oil exports, limiting Iran’s crude transport capabilities even as it competes with Russia and Venezuela for tankers.

The United States and Ukraine have signed an agreement to jointly develop Ukraine's mineral resources, including rare earths and transition metals. This follows heightened U.S.-Ukraine tensions as the Trump Administration discussed ending the Ukraine war with Russia. Ukraine holds significant reserves of rare earths, titanium, lithium, and other minerals.

【Latest Oil Policies】

Lee Zeldin, EPA Administrator, advises rewriting the U.S. endangerment finding that underpins climate rules, threatening to undo Biden's climate regulations. This move aligns with Trump's agenda to defund renewable incentives and cut EV mandates. Environmental groups warn it would worsen climate impacts and oppose the reversal.

【Industry News】

China's solar capacity growth will slow in 2025 due to grid limitations and a new power pricing mechanism. This follows a record 277 GW addition in 2024. The industry must address excess panel supply and overcapacity issues as new capacity additions are expected to decrease.

【Company News】

BP is refocusing on oil and gas, increasing upstream investment to $10 billion annually while cutting clean energy spending. This strategic shift follows shareholder pressure and investment from activist Elliott Management. BP plans new projects and reduced costs, targeting increased production and shareholder value growth.

The Abadi LNG project in Indonesia has attracted buyer interest exceeding its design capacity. Inpex, the project operator, aims for a final investment decision by 2027. Despite Shell's exit, Inpex plans to proceed with the project, supported by high demand for LNG in Asia.

【Others】

European natural gas prices have fallen due to milder temperatures and peace talks in Ukraine. The winter premium over summer futures has decreased, easing pressure on policymakers. However, low storage levels and potential government support for replenishment remain concerns.