Oil Daily | OPEC Production Quota Increase Boosts Oil Prices Amid Iraq-Russia Competition in India

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

India's missile strikes on Pakistani territory heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors, shifting the conflict from military confrontation to strategic resource control. India targeted "terrorist infrastructure," causing civilian casualties. Pakistan retaliated by downing jets and destroying a brigade headquarters, prompting global concern about further regional destabilization.

Iraq exported crude oil and petroleum products valued at $29.58 billion to India last year, maintaining a significant market share despite competition from cheap Russian oil. Iraqi crude exports to India grew annually, but Russia has become India's top supplier, reducing OPEC's share in India's imports.

【Latest Oil Policies】

India is advancing stalled hydroelectric projects in Kashmir amid escalating conflicts over strategic resources with Pakistan. Suspended obligations under the Indus Waters Treaty allow diversion of water from rivers flowing into Pakistan, threatening its agriculture and hydropower. India's moves aim to boost domestic electricity generation, impacting Pakistan's energy capacity.

OPEC's surprise announcement to boost production quotas saw oil prices rebound after an initial drop. The increase mainly legalizes current production levels due to overproduction in Iraq and Nigeria. Saudi Arabia's quota rise might meet domestic demand during summer. U.S. PMI data and geopolitical tensions influenced price recovery.

【Industry News】

Abu Dhabi's ADNOC is set to gain EU antitrust approval for its €14.7 billion acquisition of Germany's Covestro, marking ADNOC's largest acquisition and a strategic move into downstream and advanced materials. ADNOC aims to diversify beyond crude amid global energy transition pressures.

【Company News】

Marathon Petroleum reported a first-quarter loss due to weak refining margins and high maintenance activity. Despite improved margins from the previous quarter, the loss was half of the expected analyst consensus. The company remains optimistic about meeting summer demand and delivering capital returns.

Duke Energy reported higher first-quarter earnings due to increased retail sales and new rates, with adjusted EPS surpassing analyst estimates. The company affirmed its long-term EPS growth rate, driven by growing energy demands and capital investments to meet data center power demands.

Germany's Uniper received proceeds from claims against Gazprom amid ongoing arbitration. Following substantial losses from Russian gas supply restrictions, Uniper terminated long-term contracts and was awarded damages. The nationalization of Uniper safeguarded Germany's energy supply, with the government owning 99% of the company.

【Others】

The American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.49 million-barrel decrease in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending May 2. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.97 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 2.24 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 854,000 barrels, reflecting notable shifts in U.S. oil storage.