Oil Daily | Kurdistan-Iraq Oil Export Deal Nears Resolution; New Zealand Resumes Exploration

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Rising costs and uncertain regulatory and demand conditions have challenged low-emission hydrogen projects, with the International Energy Agency predicting a potential decrease in clean hydrogen production by 2030. The green hydrogen market struggles due to high expenses, requiring significant government support to become viable.

Indigenous communities in Ecuador oppose the government's oil exploration plans, fearing infringement on ancestral lands. The "hydrocarbon roadmap" aims to modernize the oil industry and attract foreign investments, but environmentalists protest. Ecuador's new government seeks increased oil production, despite declining output and ongoing indigenous resistance.

New Zealand has reopened for oil and gas exploration after a ban was lifted. The move aims to enhance energy security, as natural gas production has declined, causing shortages and increased electricity prices. New Zealand relies on hydroelectricity, but droughts have highlighted the need for gas as stability for the grid.

Oil and gas activity in the Dallas Fed’s Eleventh District declined in Q3, with elevated uncertainty and rising costs. The business activity index fell, and production decreased slightly. Cost pressures remain high, while price expectations for oil have slipped. Executives maintain a cautious stance on capital expenditure.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Eight companies in Kurdistan have reached an agreement with the Iraqi central and Kurdistan Regional Government to restart oil exports. The deal could resolve a three-year dispute with Turkey, but Norwegian DNO and British Genel Energy demand payment guarantees before signing. Export interruptions have cost Iraq and Kurdistan $26 billion.

Iran remains defiant despite potential UN sanctions, continuing oil exports to China. The JCPOA agreement's snapback mechanism could reinstate sanctions, but Iran's oil minister claims restrictions won't significantly impact due to existing U.S. sanctions, with China unofficially buying 90% of Iran's crude.

【Latest Oil Policies】

A federal judge ruled that New York's "Save the Hudson" law, which barred radioactive discharges into the Hudson River, is preempted by federal law. Holtec International argued the law raised costs and delayed decommissioning. The ruling emphasizes federal primacy in nuclear safety decisions.

【Industry News】

Turkey's BOTAS signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement with Mercuria, reducing dependence on pipeline gas and positioning Turkey as a regional hub. A preliminary deal with Australia's Woodside was also made. The agreements provide flexibility in delivery as Turkey enhances its LNG infrastructure.

【Company News】

Woodside Energy partners with Japanese firms to develop a liquid hydrogen supply chain between Australia and Japan. The H2Perth Project aims for carbon neutrality using gas and CCS. Green hydrogen faces challenges, including high costs and uncertain demand, as companies return to core oil and gas businesses.

Novatek resumed gas condensate processing at Ust-Luga after Ukrainian drone attacks halted operations. Novatek rerouted gas to Novorossiysk during repairs. Ust-Luga, hit twice this year, is a key export hub for Russian crude and fuels. Russia considers extending fuel export bans amid shortages from attacks.

TenneT, a Dutch grid operator, will sell a 46% stake in TenneT Germany to institutional investors for $11.2 billion. The deal secures equity for expanding Germany's high-voltage grid, essential for renewable energy delivery. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

【Others】

U.S. President Donald Trump shifted his stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, suggesting Ukraine could reclaim its territory with EU support. Previously skeptical of Ukraine's chances, Trump's statement follows a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the UN. Trump criticized China and India for buying Russian oil.