Oil Daily | Iraq Approves Compensation Plan to Restart Kurdistan Oil Exports, Aiming to Resolve Dispute

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Vitol forecasts crude oil demand will remain stable over the next 15 years, peaking at 110 million barrels daily before declining to 105 million by 2040. This contrasts with the International Energy Agency's prediction of a peak at 105 million barrels in four years. BP expects a decline to 91.4 million barrels by 2040. Despite these forecasts, the energy transition continues, with gasoline demand expected to drop, mainly offset by petrochemical demand growing by 6 million barrels daily by 2040. Liquefied petroleum gas demand is also projected to rise.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Iraq's parliament approved a plan to compensate oil companies in Kurdistan, aiming to restart crude exports from the region. MPs agreed on a $16 per barrel compensation, an improvement from previous proposals but lower than the current rate. This decision is vital for resuming exports and resolving disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdish government in Erbil. The prolonged suspension of Kurdish oil exports has been costly, with losses estimated at $37.5 million daily. The issue partly stems from an ICC ruling restricting Kurdish oil exports without Iraq's federal approval.