Oil Daily | Global Trade Tensions and OPEC Decisions Pressure Oil Prices, Russia Revises Forecasts

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

The tariff-driven rearrangement of global trade flows is expected to negatively impact crude oil demand, even though some Asian energy importers are increasing purchases of U.S. oil to reduce their trade surpluses with the U.S. and avoid tariffs.

OPEC's addition of 411,000 bpd from May continues to influence oil prices despite potential reconsideration and efforts to enforce compensatory cuts among overproducing members like Iraq and Kazakhstan.

Russia's Economy Ministry revised its oil price forecast reflecting trends in global markets, projecting lower average prices for Brent and Urals. This affects Russia's export revenues and compliance with G7 price caps.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

China threatens retaliation against countries that make trade deals harming its interests, as the U.S. aims to limit trade with China through tariffs. This escalates tensions in international trade relations.

Russia's Economy Ministry warns of adverse impacts on the economy due to oil price drops, linked to global trade tensions and tariff wars. The central bank governor highlights risks from declining global trade and energy resource demand.

【Latest Oil Policies】

The EU plans to adjust its methane emissions regulation to boost LNG imports from the U.S., aiming for compatibility without compromising overall standards. This is in response to concerns over supply security and emission reporting difficulties.

【Others】

U.S.-Iran talks in Rome show progress, with both sides reaching better understanding and agreement on certain principles, indicating movement forward in negotiations.