Oil Daily | U.S. Crude Inventories Surge, EU Gas Imports Shift, Petrobras Expands Amidst Market Volatility

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

The European Union reduced its natural gas imports by 18% between 2021 and 2024 due to a 20% decrease in consumption, primarily driven by high prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Industries curtailed production, and the EU diversified energy sources and increased renewables to mitigate gas reliance.

The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.76 million barrel rise in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending April 25, well above expected levels. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories also increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks decreased, highlighting ongoing inventory fluctuations in the U.S. oil market.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Norway became the EU's largest gas supplier in early 2025, providing 30% of the EU's gas and LNG, followed by the United States with 25%. European LNG imports hit record highs, capitalizing on weak Asian demand and showcasing shifting dynamics in regional energy supply.

Petrobras reported nearly flat crude oil production for Q1, with a slight sequential increase. Production gains were driven by improved efficiency and new operations in the Santos Basin, despite natural declines at some fields. Petrobras also boosted its reserves by 500 million barrels and increased its investment plan.

CNOOC's Q1 net profit fell by 7.9% due to lower oil prices, despite increased production. While oil prices dropped, average realized gas prices rose slightly. CNOOC maintained capital expenditure and expects annual output records, but lowered production targets for 2025-2027 amid declining oil prices.

【Latest Oil Policies】

India is increasing U.S. crude imports, with 11.2 million barrels set to arrive in June, as part of efforts to negotiate lower U.S. tariffs. Indian refiners like IOC and BPCL have ramped up U.S. crude purchases, seeking favorable trade terms amidst ongoing tariff discussions with the U.S.

【Industry News】

Post-pandemic demand and geopolitical events initially boosted profits for oil supermajors, but challenges like price volatility and clean energy transitions exposed structural weaknesses. Companies like BP and Chevron have seen profits fall, while ADNOC has adapted with a diversified strategy and expansion into lower-carbon products.

Morgan Stanley noted a peculiar shape in the Brent crude forward curve with a downward slope followed by an upward turn, attributed to U.S. trade policies and potential supply surpluses. This pattern suggests possible market shifts and challenges in oil trading dynamics.

The Grangemouth refinery in Scotland ceased crude oil processing after 100 years, transitioning to a fuels import terminal due to competitive pressures from new facilities in Asia and the Middle East. The closure resulted in job losses, and INEOS called for reduced carbon taxes on energy-intensive firms.

PetroChina reported a 2.3% increase in Q1 net profit, driven by higher natural gas production and sales despite falling crude oil prices. The company highlighted Chinese government support for shale gas exploration and expects continued production growth amid a challenging refining market.

【Company News】

Koch Industries is exiting the oil and fuels trading business to focus on other commodities like metals and natural gas. The company had previously reduced its oil presence, citing regulatory challenges and is investing in electric vehicles. This shift aligns with broader industry trends toward diversification and regulation adaptation.

【Others】

The CEO of Swedish utility Vattenfall highlighted potential delays in European electricity demand growth due to tariff uncertainties affecting investment decisions. Vattenfall is progressing with offshore wind projects and seeking financing for new nuclear power, supported by Swedish government risk-sharing initiatives.