Oil Daily | China and India Drive Demand as Russia Shifts Oil Exports Amid Sanction Challenges
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2024 7:00 am ET
2min read LNG --
XOM --
【Global Oil Supply and Demand】
U.S. electricity consumption is expected to reach new highs in 2023 and 2025, driven by colder winters and increased demand from data centers. The share of natural gas in electricity generation will rise, while coal's share will drop. The electricity demand surge is supported by new natural gas-fired capacity.
Oil demand in China could peak in 2025 due to the rise of electric vehicles and LNG trucks. This shift is reducing road fuel demand as EVs and LNG trucks replace gasoline and diesel. The move towards electrification is further denting China's oil demand growth.
Thermal coal consumption and exports are set to rise to record levels in 2024, driven by increased demand in emerging markets. Despite a growing share of renewables, coal remains a significant part of China's power generation, with rising demand in China and India.
【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】
Russia has shifted its energy exports from Europe to China and India due to sanctions. New sanctions against Russia's oil industry are considered by the U.S., but enforcement challenges persist due to steady demand from major buyers like China and India.
【Latest Oil Policies】
The Biden administration considers more sanctions on Russia's oil sector, aiming to weaken President Putin. These sanctions have varied impacts and enforcement challenges, particularly with major buyers like China and India continuing their Russian energy imports.
The European Commission advises against giving the UK greater access to EU electricity markets, aligning with its "no cherry-picking" stance post-Brexit. This advice is viewed as short-sighted by industry stakeholders who seek efficient electricity arrangements between the EU and UK markets.
【Industry News】
ExxonMobil is accelerating the P'nyang gas field project in Papua New Guinea, aiming for an early start to align with LNG demand and avoid supply gaps. The fast-tracked development highlights Exxon's focus on expanding its LNG portfolio amid global demand.
Two major U.S. LNG projects face delays due to environmental reviews, reflecting a broader conflict between energy expansion and environmental scrutiny. The U.S. remains the top LNG exporter, but such delays threaten its position amid rising costs and political challenges.
The price of EV battery packs has dropped significantly, driven by oversupply from China and lower lithium prices. This decline could lead to global price parity with conventional vehicles by 2026, although the underlying oversupply challenges smaller manufacturers.
【Company News】
ExxonMobil is fast-tracking the P'nyang gas field in Papua New Guinea, aiming to expand its LNG portfolio to meet rising demand. This project is crucial for maintaining PNG's LNG industry, with potential timelines synchronized with other LNG projects to avoid supply issues.
【Others】
The Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea has postponed its start-up to early 2025 due to bad weather. The field is expected to produce 220,000 barrels per day and will play a significant role in Norway's future oil production and exploration efforts.
U.S. electricity consumption is expected to reach new highs in 2023 and 2025, driven by colder winters and increased demand from data centers. The share of natural gas in electricity generation will rise, while coal's share will drop. The electricity demand surge is supported by new natural gas-fired capacity.
Oil demand in China could peak in 2025 due to the rise of electric vehicles and LNG trucks. This shift is reducing road fuel demand as EVs and LNG trucks replace gasoline and diesel. The move towards electrification is further denting China's oil demand growth.
Thermal coal consumption and exports are set to rise to record levels in 2024, driven by increased demand in emerging markets. Despite a growing share of renewables, coal remains a significant part of China's power generation, with rising demand in China and India.
【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】
Russia has shifted its energy exports from Europe to China and India due to sanctions. New sanctions against Russia's oil industry are considered by the U.S., but enforcement challenges persist due to steady demand from major buyers like China and India.
【Latest Oil Policies】
The Biden administration considers more sanctions on Russia's oil sector, aiming to weaken President Putin. These sanctions have varied impacts and enforcement challenges, particularly with major buyers like China and India continuing their Russian energy imports.
The European Commission advises against giving the UK greater access to EU electricity markets, aligning with its "no cherry-picking" stance post-Brexit. This advice is viewed as short-sighted by industry stakeholders who seek efficient electricity arrangements between the EU and UK markets.
【Industry News】
ExxonMobil is accelerating the P'nyang gas field project in Papua New Guinea, aiming for an early start to align with LNG demand and avoid supply gaps. The fast-tracked development highlights Exxon's focus on expanding its LNG portfolio amid global demand.
Two major U.S. LNG projects face delays due to environmental reviews, reflecting a broader conflict between energy expansion and environmental scrutiny. The U.S. remains the top LNG exporter, but such delays threaten its position amid rising costs and political challenges.
The price of EV battery packs has dropped significantly, driven by oversupply from China and lower lithium prices. This decline could lead to global price parity with conventional vehicles by 2026, although the underlying oversupply challenges smaller manufacturers.
【Company News】
ExxonMobil is fast-tracking the P'nyang gas field in Papua New Guinea, aiming to expand its LNG portfolio to meet rising demand. This project is crucial for maintaining PNG's LNG industry, with potential timelines synchronized with other LNG projects to avoid supply issues.
【Others】
The Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea has postponed its start-up to early 2025 due to bad weather. The field is expected to produce 220,000 barrels per day and will play a significant role in Norway's future oil production and exploration efforts.