Oil Daily | BP Predicts Global Oil Demand Surge as OPEC Falls Short; Russia Faces Export Bans Amid Drone Strikes

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

BP's 2025 Energy Outlook indicates global oil demand will rise through 2030 due to weaker-than-expected efficiency gains. Demand growth is driven by India's and other emerging Asian economies' rapid growth, offsetting declines in developed markets. BP has pivoted back to oil and gas, with planned upstream projects and increased production.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

OPEC's production increase has fallen short of promised levels, delivering only 75% of agreed volumes, as many members face capacity limits while others compensate for previous overproduction. Lower supply may ease oversupply concerns. Russia struggles with reduced capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks on infrastructure.

Russia plans to extend its gasoline export ban and introduce a diesel export ban for non-producers by year-end to ensure domestic supply amid fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. These measures are anticipated due to refinery damage and resulting processing rate reductions.

Iraq plans to resume crude oil exports from Kurdistan, halted since March 2023, following successful negotiations. Initial exports of 230,000 bpd to Turkey's port of Ceyhan are expected, potentially rising to 500,000 bpd. The suspension cost Iraq and Kurdistan $26 billion in lost oil income.

【Latest Oil Policies】

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a year-end gasoline export ban extension and a diesel export ban for non-producers, aiming to stabilize domestic fuel supply amid shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. The government seeks to offset supply disruptions.

【Industry News】

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management is tendering a Wyoming coal deposit with 440 million tons, intending to delay retiring coal power plants due to rising electricity demand from data centers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized the need to maintain firm capacity to ensure utility supply and avoid blackouts.

【Company News】

ExxonMobil's natural gas discovery in Cyprus, estimated at 8-9 trillion cubic feet, boosts the island's ambition to be a regional gas export hub. The discovery, along with others in Block 10, highlights the Eastern Mediterranean's potential as a gas production center despite previous drilling setbacks.

Chevron anticipates a $200-$400 million Q3 loss from its $55 billion Hess acquisition, affecting adjusted earnings. The acquisition grants a significant stake in Guyana's Stabroek block, promising future growth despite immediate financial impacts from weaker oil prices and acquisition costs.

Eni sold a 30% stake in the Baleine oil and gas project offshore Cote d'Ivoire to Vitol, optimizing its upstream portfolio. The Baleine field achieved production two years post-discovery. The sale aligns with Eni's dual exploration model, fast-tracking discoveries to production.

【Others】

President Trump urged Turkey's President Erdogan to stop importing Russian oil to strengthen ties and isolate Moscow, offering potential easing of sanctions and revisiting arms sales. The meeting underscored transactional diplomacy and highlighted Turkey's importance in U.S.-Russia relations and energy security.