Oil Daily | BP's Major Discovery in Brazil as Global Oil Supply Poised to Rise Amidst Demand Uncertainty

【Global Oil Supply and Demand】

Asia's seaborne coal imports dropped by nearly 8% in July compared to the previous year, driven by increased domestic coal production in China and India, despite rising imports by Japan and South Korea. China's coal imports fell due to surging domestic production and weaker industrial demand.

Diamondback Energy anticipates a potential increase in global oil supply in the year's second half, possibly leading to a glut. The company plans to maintain flat output and reduce capital expenditure, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts slower production growth due to lower oil prices.

China's oil demand decreased year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by weaker diesel and gasoline margins, although naphtha consumption remained strong. The International Energy Agency predicts naphtha demand will grow significantly, as domestic ethylene capacity increases and refiners shift toward chemical feedstocks.

Venezuela's crude and fuel exports fell by 10% in July as Chevron and other partners awaited U.S. authorizations to resume operations. The Trump Administration granted Chevron a sanction exemption, allowing limited oil exports to the U.S. from Venezuela.

Hammerfest LNG in Norway resumed operations after maintenance, contributing to a decrease in Europe's natural gas prices. Despite frequent disruptions, Norway remains a top gas supplier to Europe, replacing Russia. Norway's gas exports hit a record level in 2024 and are expected to remain high.

【Oil-Producing Countries Dynamics】

Petronas is seeking buyers for its 50% stake in Brazil's Tartaruga Verde field, potentially earning up to $1 billion. The stake, acquired from Petrobras in 2019, is part of a broader divestment strategy, including interests in Canada. Petrobras focuses on revitalizing existing fields over new exploration.

Exxon reached a preliminary deal to explore four offshore blocks in Libya, marking its return after a decade-long absence. The agreement follows similar deals with BP and Shell, as Libya seeks to attract international investment despite political instability and frequent production disruptions.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to "substantially raise tariffs" on Indian exports due to India's continued import of Russian crude oil. Despite U.S. pressure, India maintains high Russian crude volumes, driven by strategic autonomy and energy security concerns.

Tankers filled with Russian crude off India's coast unloaded despite U.S. penalty threats for purchasing Russian oil. Private Indian refiners Nayara Energy and Reliance Industries imported most of the barrels, underscoring India's significant reliance on discounted Russian oil.

BP reported a major oil and gas discovery in Brazil's offshore Santos Basin, marking the supermajor's largest find in 25 years. The discovery aligns with BP's strategy to increase oil and gas production and Brazil's goal to boost its energy output.

【Company News】

Petronas is considering selling its stake in Brazil's Tartaruga Verde field, acquired from Petrobras in 2019. The potential divestment follows reports of Petronas evaluating strategic alternatives for its Canadian unit, reflecting its broader reallocation strategy.

Exxon signed a preliminary agreement for offshore exploration in Libya after a decade-long absence. The deal, part of Libya's first exploration tender since the civil war, reflects Exxon's renewed interest in the region, alongside BP and Shell's similar agreements.

Diamondback Energy plans to maintain stable output levels and reduce capital expenditure amid projected global oil supply increases. The company's strategy underscores a cautious approach to potential oversupply, as industry forecasts predict slower U.S. production growth due to lower prices.

BP announced a significant oil and gas discovery in Brazil's Santos Basin, enhancing its upstream production prospects. The discovery, BP's largest in 25 years, strengthens Brazil's energy sector and aligns with BP's strategic focus on increasing oil and gas output.

【Others】

A group of U.S. investors is in talks with Bulgaria to acquire a minority stake in the Chiren underground gas storage facility. The site, containing Russian-origin gas, is seen as key for regional energy balance amidst evolving EU supply diversification policies.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Indian exports due to India’s continued Russian oil purchases, tying trade penalties to energy sourcing decisions for the first time. This move adds uncertainty for Indian refiners amid strategic autonomy priorities.

Venezuela’s oil exports decreased in July, with Chevron awaiting U.S. sanctions exemption to resume operations. This exemption is expected to impact heavy crude markets, potentially increasing global supply amidst forecasts of oversupply by late Q3.

Hammerfest LNG resumed operations after maintenance, impacting European natural gas prices. Despite disruptions, Norway remains a crucial supplier, with gas exports reaching record levels in 2024 and projected to remain high in the coming years.

Tankers with Russian crude unloaded in India despite U.S. threats of penalties, reflecting India's reliance on Russian oil. Despite threats, India hasn't directed refiners to cease buying Russian oil, underscoring its strategic autonomy and energy security priorities.