OGNUSDT Market Overview – 2025-11-05

Summary
• OGNUSDT fell from 0.0414 to 0.0384 over 24 hours, closing at 0.0384.
• Heavy selling pressure in early hours led to a 6.8% drop.
• Bounded by key support at 0.0380–0.0379 and resistance at 0.0400–0.0405.

Market Opening and Price Action

Origin Protocol/Tether (OGNUSDT) opened at 0.0414 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0384 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.0414 and a low of 0.0368 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 55.89 million OGN, with a notional turnover of $2.17 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours revealed a clear bearish bias, marked by a sharp breakdown from 0.0414 to 0.0368, a decline of ~6.8%. The most significant support level appears to be between 0.0380 and 0.0379, as seen in the candlestick clusters between 00:30 and 00:45 ET and 04:30–05:45 ET. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed between 20:30 and 20:45 ET, signaling potential for further downside. The 0.0400–0.0405 zone acts as a psychological resistance, which failed to hold on multiple occasions during the 24-hour window.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending lower, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA, forming a potential bearish crossover. The 200-period daily MA remains above current levels, indicating that OGNUSDT is in a medium-term downtrend. Volatility increased significantly during the early hours of 2025-11-05, with Bollinger Bands expanding to reflect heightened market anxiety. Price has remained within the bands, but with a tendency to hover near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum.

Momentum and Indicators

While a full 14-period RSI is currently unavailable due to a technical issue, the general price action and volume suggest that OGNUSDT has entered an oversold condition, especially in the 00:30–03:00 ET window, when the price fell below 0.0385. However, due to the volume divergence seen in the early part of the session, a rebound may face resistance at 0.0390–0.0395. The MACD is trending lower, with bearish momentum intensifying after 23:30 ET. The histogram has turned negative and continues to expand, reinforcing the bearish signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early hours of 2025-11-05, particularly between 00:00 and 02:30 ET, when over 10 million OGN changed hands. This volume surge did not coincide with a meaningful price rebound, instead supporting a bearish breakdown. Turnover also peaked around this time, with the 00:00–00:30 ET candle printing the highest single-candle turnover of $1.01 million. A divergence between price and turnover suggests that selling pressure may still be building, with potential for further bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from 0.0414 to 0.0368, the 61.8% level is at approximately 0.0383, which has acted as a temporary floor. The 38.2% level is near 0.0391, a zone that has failed as a resistance multiple times. If the price breaks below the 61.8% retracement level, the next target would be the 50% level at 0.0386, followed by the 38.2% level at 0.0391 if there is a bounce. The daily chart also shows a key Fibonacci level at 0.0375–0.0380, which may serve as a potential floor for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Due to a technical issue retrieving the 14-period RSI for OGNUSDT, the full backtest strategy cannot be executed at this time. The missing RSI data may impact the accuracy of any rules-based testing involving momentum or overbought/oversold thresholds. To resolve this, consider retrying the strategy with a different data source or providing a raw OHLC or RSI file for OGNUSDT between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-05. Alternatively, you may choose to test a different crypto pair with more accessible data. Once resolved, a backtest can be run using the RSI-based momentum rules applied here.