Odds That Bitcoin Falls Below $65K Rise to 72% on Prediction Markets

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Monday, prompting a wave of bearish sentiment in the market. The price drop sparked renewed concerns about the cryptocurrency's near-term outlook, with traders shifting their focus to downside risks. The sell-off erased gains made following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump, which had driven optimism among investors according to reports.

Prediction markets have reflected a shift in investor sentiment, with the odds of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 rising to 72% on Polymarket. This represents a significant increase in bearish positioning, with almost $1 million in trading volume reported for the event.

The market is also betting on the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping below $55,000, with a probability of 61%, and a potential rebound to $100,000 by year-end, at 54% according to Polymarket data.

Why Did This Happen?

The recent decline in Bitcoin's price marks a significant milestone for Michael Saylor's Strategy, the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder. For the first time since late 2023, the price has fallen below the firm's average cost of acquisition.

Analysts have attributed the sell-off to a broader bearish trend in the market. CryptoQuant noted that a bear market has been in place since November 2025, when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.

The firm's research head, Julio Moreno, warned that bear markets take months to reach a bottom. "Don't try to find bottoms after a new leg down," he stated on X.

How Did Markets React?

Market participants have also pointed to tight US liquidity conditions as a factor behind the downturn. Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, linked the decline to broader macroeconomic pressures rather than crypto-specific factors.

Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan emphasized that Bitcoin's core use case is not to increase in price, but to serve as an independent form of money. "Its main use case is to provide a form of money that is independent of governments and banks," Greenspan wrote on X.

The bearish trend contrasts with earlier forecasts from major investment firms. Grayscale Investments had predicted Bitcoin could surpass all-time highs of $126,000 by June 2026. Standard Chartered and Bernstein had projected the price could reach $150,000 in 2026, though both had revised their earlier targets due to slower inflows into ETFs.

The market's bearish sentiment is also reflected in the performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs. After five days of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest inflows on January 26, 2026. However, these inflows were far below previous levels, suggesting caution among institutional investors.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Despite the recent dip, some analysts believe the market could stabilize and rally. CryptoQuant noted that elevated open interest levels suggest the market remains heavily leveraged, but selling pressure appears to be balanced.

QCP Group highlighted broader macroeconomic conditions as a potential influence on Bitcoin's performance. The firm noted that "pressure looks macro-led rather than crypto-native".

Looking ahead, analysts project a possible dip below $85,000, with a potential support level at $70,000 if bearish pressure increases according to analysis. On the upside, a rally back to $100,000 or higher is possible if macroeconomic conditions improve and demand for Bitcoin picks up according to forecasts.

The bearish trend has also led to regulatory scrutiny, with Polymarket recently facing a Nevada court order blocking its event contracts as unlicensed wagering.