Ocular Therapeutix Stock Plunges 21% on Mixed Trial Reactions Despite Outperforming Eylea Ranks 393rd in $350M Trading Surge

Market Snapshot

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) experienced a significant selloff on February 17, 2026, with its stock plunging 21.28% amid mixed reactions to its clinical trial results. Trading volume surged to $0.35 billion, an 859.5% increase from the prior day, ranking the stock 393rd in market activity. Despite the drug’s clinical success, the sharp decline reflected investor dissatisfaction with the magnitude of the therapeutic benefit and safety concerns.

Key Drivers Behind the Selloff

The trial results for Ocular’s experimental drug Axpaxli in treating wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) marked a historic milestone: the first investigational therapy to outperform an approved treatment—Regeneron’s Eylea—in an FDA-aligned Phase 3 study. In the SOL-1 trial, 74% of patients receiving a single 0.45 mg dose of Axpaxli maintained vision at 36 weeks, compared to 56% for Eylea. At one year, 66% of Axpaxli patients retained vision versus less than half of Eylea recipients. The drug also demonstrated superior fluid control and reduced need for additional “rescue” injections, positioning it as a potential game-changer in a $2.75 billion market dominated by Eylea.

However, the clinical success failed to translate into investor confidence due to the modest therapeutic advantage. Analysts highlighted that the 18.3% difference in visual acuity at 36 weeks fell short of the anticipated 30–50% gap, which many investors had expected for a novel mechanism of action. The narrower margin—driven by Eylea’s stronger-than-anticipated performance in the control arm—was perceived as insufficient to justify a premium in the competitive AMD landscape. Jones Trading analyst Debanjana Chatterjee noted the 18-point gap “fell well short of the expected benchmark,” while Needham’s Serge Belanger described the difference as “much narrower” than desired.

Safety data further dampened enthusiasm. Axpaxli showed higher rates of eye-related side effects, with 52.9% of patients reporting issues like vitreous floaters (12.4%) and cataracts (7.1%), compared to 33.7% for Eylea. Although Ocular emphasized no serious adverse events, the safety profile raised concerns among investors and retinal specialists. Belanger acknowledged that “retinal specialists may appreciate today’s data better than investors,” underscoring the disconnect between clinical validation and market expectations.

The stock’s decline also reflected skepticism about Axpaxli’s commercial viability in a market where Eylea and Roche’s Vabysmo already offer extended dosing intervals. Ocular’s CEO Pravin Dugel called the results “one of the most consequential advances in retina,” but analysts like RBC’s Lisa Walter noted the study population was “specifically selected to lose vision,” limiting real-world applicability. The company’s ongoing SOL-R trial, which is designed to assess non-inferiority in a more stable patient cohort, may provide a clearer path to approval and market adoption, but its 2027 readout timeline leaves short-term uncertainty.

Despite the selloff, Ocular remains on track to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for Axpaxli after discussions with the FDA. If approved, Axpaxli could become the first tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) in the AMD space, leveraging its hydrogel delivery system for sustained release. However, the stock’s sharp drop underscores the challenge of balancing clinical innovation with investor demands for robust differentiation and safety in a crowded therapeutic category.