Ocular Misses Revenue, Cuts Losses But Cash Burn Rises

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) reported fiscal 2025 Q4 earnings on Feb 5, 2026, delivering mixed results. The company narrowly beat EPS estimates with a $0.29 loss per share versus a $0.32 forecast but missed revenue targets as sales fell 22.4% year-over-year to $13.25 million. Guidance emphasized key milestones, including SOL-1 trial data presentation at the Macula Society Annual Meeting and plans for an AXPAXLI NDA submission in wet AMD pending FDA alignment.

Revenue

Total revenue declined 22.4% to $13.25 million in 2025 Q4, compared to $17.08 million in the prior-year period. The drop reflects a challenging reimbursement environment for DEXTENZA despite record annual unit volume.

Earnings/Net Income

Ocular Therapeutix narrowed its per-share loss to $0.29 in Q4 2025 from $0.31 in Q4 2024, representing a 1.0% improvement. However, the company’s net loss widened to $64.65 million (Q4 2025) from $48.39 million (Q4 2024), a 33.6% increase. The EPS improvement was offset by higher R&D and operational costs, underscoring the mixed nature of the earnings performance.

Price Action

The stock price edged up 0.68% in the latest trading day but fell 10.45% during the most recent full week and 22.86% month-to-date. Post-earnings volatility highlights the market’s cautious stance amid ongoing clinical and financial uncertainties.

The strategy of buying Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) shares after a revenue drop quarter-over-quarter on the financial report release date and holding for 30 days delivered moderate returns but underperformed the market. The strategy’s CAGR was 6.76%, trailing the benchmark by 24.89%. With a maximum drawdown of 44.74% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.18, the strategy indicated a challenging risk-return profile, highlighting the importance of risk management in such a volatile scenario.

CEO Commentary

CEO Pravin Dugel emphasized progress in AXPAXLI’s regulatory pathway, including plans to submit an NDA for wet AMD based on SOL-1 52-week data pending positive results and FDA alignment. The CEO also outlined an accelerated timeline for SOL-R topline results (1Q 2027) and a streamlined diabetic retinopathy trial strategy. Despite a $737.1 million cash balance sufficient to fund operations into 2028, challenges in DEXTENZA’s reimbursement environment and rising R&D costs remain critical risks.

Guidance

The company anticipates presenting SOL-1 topline results at the 49th Macula Society Annual Meeting (Feb 25–28, 2026) and submitting an NDA for AXPAXLI in wet AMD based on these data, pending FDA concurrence. SOL-R topline results are expected in 1Q 2027, with HELIOS-3 progressing as a potential standalone trial for diabetic retinopathy. The cash runway is projected to extend into 2028, excluding full commercialization costs.

Additional News

RBC Capital Markets reiterated an “outperform” rating on Ocular Therapeutix, maintaining a $30 price target, citing positive internal simulations for the SOL-1 trial and supportive data from long-acting TKI class trials. The firm also highlighted recent corporate actions, including hiring a new chief commercial officer with retina expertise and launching two pivotal diabetic retinopathy studies. Separately, the company raised $475 million via an equity offering in September 2025, with net proceeds of $445.6 million, extending its cash runway to 2028.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

The post-earnings price action revealed a volatile market response, with the stock’s 0.68% daily gain contrasting sharply against a 22.86% month-to-date decline. The underperforming 30-day strategy—marked by a 6.76% CAGR and 44.74% maximum drawdown—underscored the stock’s susceptibility to clinical and operational risks. While the Sharpe ratio of 0.18 highlighted a suboptimal risk-adjusted return, the strategy’s alignment with broader market trends remained limited. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming SOL-1 data and FDA interactions, which could drive near-term volatility.