The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a $446 million wave of token unlocks in the third week of October 2025, with FastToken (FTN), Connex (CONX), and ArbitrumARB-- (ARB) leading the charge. These unlocks, totaling over 138 million tokens across three projects, could exert significant short-term pressure on prices as newly released tokens enter circulation. FastToken will unlock 20 million FTN on October 18, valued at $40.2 million, representing 2.04% of its circulating supply. Connex will release 2.32 million CONX on October 15, worth $32.4 million, while Arbitrum will unlock 92.65 million ARBARB-- on October 16, valued at $31.6 million.
The unlocks are part of a broader trend of token supply expansions, with other major projects like deBridge (DBR) and StarknetSTRK-- (STRK) also releasing significant token volumes. According to Tokenomist data, DRB's unlock on October 17 will release 605 million tokens worth $17.64 million, representing 17.01% of its circulating supply-the largest percentage-based unlock among major projects this week. Starknet's $16.49 million unlock of 127 million STRKSTRK-- tokens, or 2.94% of supply, is expected to follow a similar pattern of volatility seen in previous unlocks.
The timing of these unlocks has raised concerns among traders. Phemex analysts note that the concentrated release of tokens in a short period could exacerbate price swings, particularly for projects with smaller market capitalizations. For example, Connex's unlock of 2.32 million CONX tokens-allocated to the foundation, ecosystem, and treasury-could face immediate selling pressure if market demand does not absorb the new supply. Similarly, Arbitrum's unlock of 92.65 million ARB tokens, primarily directed to team members and investors, carries risks of post-unlock price corrections.
Market participants are closely monitoring the interplay between token unlocks and broader market sentiment. The $155 million in total unlocks this week, including additional projects like Sei (SEI) and ZKsyncZK-- (ZK), could amplify volatility in an already fragile altcoin market. Analysts at Cryptodnes highlight that projects with high unlock percentages relative to their circulating supply-such as DRB's 17.01%-are particularly vulnerable to sharp price declines unless there is strong institutional or retail buying interest.
Historical data from Tokenomist suggests that token unlocks often trigger short-term price declines, averaging 25% for projects where unlocked tokens are allocated to teams or early investors. For instance, the $32.4 million CONX unlock could see significant selling if team members and investors offload their shares quickly. Conversely, ecosystem-focused unlocks, like those for Arbitrum's treasury and foundation, may have a more stabilizing effect as tokens are reinvested into development or liquidity initiatives.
The broader implications of these unlocks extend beyond immediate price movements. TradersUnion analysts warn that large-scale unlocks could trigger regulatory scrutiny, particularly if they are perceived as artificial price manipulation. Additionally, the influx of new tokens into the market could dilute investor confidence, especially if projects fail to demonstrate clear use cases for the released supply. However, for projects with strong fundamentals, such as Arbitrum's Layer-2 scaling solutions or Connex's Web3 networking platform, the unlocks could represent a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
As the market prepares for this unlock event, investors are advised to adopt risk management strategies. Position sizing, stop-loss orders, and diversification across projects with varied unlock schedules can mitigate potential losses. The coming week will test the resilience of altcoin markets, with the performance of FTN, CONX, and ARB serving as key indicators of how the sector navigates the challenges of token supply expansions.
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