Is October 2025 the Onset of Bitcoin's Next Bear Market?

Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle, long a cornerstone of crypto market analysis, is under scrutiny in 2025. Historically, halving events—where Bitcoin’s block reward is cut—have triggered deflationary scarcity, driving prices to new highs before sharp corrections [1]. The 2024 halving, for instance, coincided with a record $73,000 peak in March 2024, but this surge occurred before the event, defying traditional patterns [3]. Analysts now debate whether the cycle remains predictive or has been upended by institutional forces like ETFs and macroeconomic shifts.

The Fractured Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s historical cycle typically sees a bull run post-halving, followed by a bear market 500–540 days later [1]. However, the 2024 halving saw Bitcoin’s all-time high achieved pre-halving, attributed to institutional demand via ETFs accelerating price discovery [3]. This inversion suggests the cycle’s mechanics are evolving.

Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management argues the four-year cycle is “ending,” with future price movements now more sensitive to liquidity and macroeconomic factors [3]. For example, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has strengthened, reflecting its growing role as a macro asset [2]. Meanwhile, large-scale corrections—once 70–80% declines—have mellowed to 26–50%, signaling a maturing market with long-term holder dominance [3].

October 2025: A "Judgment Day" Scenario?

Analyst Joao Wedson warns that October 2025 could mark Bitcoin’s peak, with a subsequent crash to $50,000 in 2026 [1]. This prediction hinges on fractal patterns and historical 35-month cycles, which align with October 2025 as a potential inflection point [3]. However, bullish forecasts counter this, citing institutional adoption and Layer 2 innovations like Bitcoin Hyper as catalysts for a $150,000+ peak [4].

The debate hinges on whether macroeconomic pressures—such as interest rate hikes or geopolitical instability—will trigger a liquidity crisis. Paul Howard of Wincent notes September’s historically weak performance and Bitcoin’s dip below a $110,000–$120,000 summer channel as bearish signals [1]. Conversely, technical indicators like hidden bullish divergence on daily charts suggest a retest of $124,500 in the coming months [3].

The Cycle’s New Normal

While the four-year cycle’s mathematical framework remains intact, its predictive power is now intertwined with external variables. ETF inflows, for instance, have created a “front-running” effect, where institutional capital locks in gains pre-halving [3]. This dynamic may delay traditional post-halving rallies, stretching the cycle’s timeline.

Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca cautions that bear markets can emerge organically, without a single catalyst—routine portfolio rebalancing or news fatigue could suffice [3]. This aligns with recent milder corrections, where institutional inflows and long-term holder accumulation have cushioned declines [3].

Conclusion: A Hybrid Outlook

Bitcoin’s October 2025 trajectory will likely reflect a hybrid of cyclical and macro forces. While the four-year cycle’s framework persists, its expression is now filtered through institutional demand, ETF dynamics, and global liquidity trends. Investors must weigh both historical patterns and real-time macro signals. If October 2025 does mark a peak, it will not be due to the cycle alone but a confluence of factors—including whether ETF outflows or regulatory shifts disrupt the current bullish momentum [1].

For now, the $100,000 level remains a critical psychological and technical benchmark. A break above $120,000 could extend the bull run, while a sustained drop below $100,000 may signal a bear market’s onset. The four-year cycle is not dead—but it is evolving.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin could crash to $50k in 2026 after October top [https://crypto.news/bitcoin-could-crash-to-50k-in-2026-after-october-top-analyst-warns/][2] Bitcoin's Market Cycle & Crypto Cycles Chart | Key Insights [https://calebandbrown.com/blog/bitcoins-market-cycle/][3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Cycle Might Be Breaking [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/bitcoin-btc-price-cycle-might-be-breaking.html][4] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025 - 2030 | BTC Price Analysis [https://icobench.com/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-price-prediction/]