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Shell plc (SHEL), a leading integrated oil and gas company, has released its third-quarter 2025 update, providing insights into its operational and financial expectations for the period. The report, dated October 7, 2025, highlights key trends in production, margins, and strategic focus areas. While the numbers are preliminary, they offer a glimpse into Shell's positioning across various business segments.

Integrated Gas Segment

Shell's Integrated Gas segment is expected to maintain robust performance, with production forecasted in the range of 910-950 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), up from 913 kboe/d in the second quarter. Notably, LNG liquefaction volumes are projected to rise to 7-7.4 million tons (MT), up from 6.7 MT in the previous quarter. This reflects Shell's leverage of its global LNG infrastructure and trading capabilities. Trading & Optimization results are also anticipated to be significantly higher than the second quarter, underscoring the segment's role as a key earnings driver Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Upstream Segment

The Upstream division shows a notable increase in production expectations, with a forecast of 1,790-1,890 kboe/d, up from 1,732 kboe/d in the second quarter. This indicates operational improvements and fewer unplanned outages. However, the segment is expected to take a $0.2-$0.4 billion hit due to the rebalancing of participation interests in Brazil's Tupi field. Despite this one-off impact, the underlying production growth signals resilience in Shell's conventional energy portfolio Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Marketing Segment

Marketing sales volumes are projected to be in the range of 2,650-3,050 kb/d, down from 2,813 kb/d in the second quarter. However, Shell expects the segment's adjusted earnings to be higher than the previous quarter, implying better margins or cost management. Underlying Operational Expenditure (opex) is expected to remain stable, reflecting disciplined operational control Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Chemicals & Products Segment

A mixed picture emerges in the Chemicals & Products segment. The indicative refining margin is projected to rise to $11.6/barrel (bbl) from $8.9/bbl in the second quarter, reflecting stronger global demand for refined products. Refinery utilization is also expected to remain high, between 94% and 98%. In contrast, the chemicals margin is forecasted to dip to $160/ton, with Shell anticipating an adjusted loss in the Chemicals sub-segment. This divergence highlights ongoing challenges in the chemicals market Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Renewables & Energy Solutions Segment

Renewables and Energy Solutions (RES) continues to reflect the transitional nature of Shell's low-carbon investments. Adjusted earnings are projected between a loss of $0.2 billion and a profit of $0.4 billion, indicating this segment remains volatile and not yet a consistent earnings contributor Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Corporate and Group-Level Highlights

At the group level, Shell expects payable tax to decrease to $2.1-$2.9 billion from $3.4 billion in the second quarter. Working capital movements are projected to be between a loss of $3 billion and a profit of $1 billion, reflecting typical quarter-to-quarter volatility. Shell also notes a non-cash impairment of approximately $0.6 billion in the Marketing segment due to the cancellation of the Rotterdam HEFA project. Additionally, Shell expects a 0.4% increase in gearing due to new pension legislation in the Netherlands Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

Conclusion

Shell's third-quarter 2025 outlook paints a picture of a company leveraging strength in LNG and refining, managing headwinds in chemicals and Brazil, and continuing to navigate the complexities of the energy transition. While near-term uncertainties remain, the update reinforces Shell's focus on operational discipline and strategic flexibility. Investors and industry watchers will be closely observing the quarterly results on October 30 to see how these projections translate into performance and what they signal for Shell's path forward in a changing energy world Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1].

References

Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Out^[1] Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Output and Stronger Gas Trading. (2025, October 7). Retrieved from https://www.sharewise.com/us/news_articles/Shell_Expects_Higher_Q3_LNG_Output_and_Stronger_Gas_Trading_Zacks_20251008_1447/amp