Occidental Petroleum Stock Jumps 5.04% On Technical Breakout Signals

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) shares rose significantly by 5.04% to $47.76 on 2025-09-16, accompanied by above-average trading volume. This recent momentum provides critical context for evaluating the stock's technical positioning across multiple indicators.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show notable developments. The 2025-09-16 session formed a decisive long-bodied white candle closing near its high, signaling strong bullish conviction following several indecisive small-bodied candles near $45.50. This breakout pattern suggests potential continuation. Key support is now established near $45.70-$46.00, marked by recent price consolidations and lows. Resistance appears near $48.00 (a psychological level and recent minor peak on 2025-09-03) and more significantly near $48.50-$49.00, which served as both support and resistance multiple times during June and July 2025.
Moving Average Theory
The longer-term moving averages (200-day and 100-day) remain relatively flat, indicating a lack of strong primary trend direction over the past year. The price ($47.76) is currently positioned slightly above both the 50-day (~$46.70) and 100-day (~$47.20) averages but below the declining 200-day average (~$48.20). This confluence near $47.20-$48.20 represents a significant hurdle. A sustained move above the 200-day MA would be bullish, while failure here could signal renewed downside. The flatlining MAs suggest overall market indecision.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) histogram is showing nascent positive momentum, transitioning from negative territory. The signal line crossover is tentative but suggests weakening downward momentum. The KDJ indicator (particularly the %K and %D lines) has crossed upwards and moved out of the oversold zone (<20) observed during the August decline. The current KDJ positioning (e.g., %K around 65) indicates increasing positive momentum without being overbought (>80). This shift aligns with the recent price surge, potentially signaling strengthening upside potential.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20,2) recently contracted significantly during the September consolidation between ~$45.50 and $46.50, indicating exceptionally low volatility. The sharp move upwards on the 16th pushed the price from near the lower band towards the upper band, accompanied by expanding bands – a classic volatility breakout signal often preceding sustained directional moves. A confirmed close above the middle band (20-day SMA) supports this bullish breakout thesis.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent breakout is validated by a substantial volume surge (~13.8 million shares versus the prior 3-day average of ~5.4 million). This high-volume surge on an up day increases confidence in the move's sustainability. Prior significant rallies (e.g., 2025-09-10, 2025-07-08, 2025-05-12) also featured high volume, whereas downside moves often saw volume diminish near lows (e.g., the August 2025 bottom near $42), suggesting a lack of strong conviction on declines. Accumulation appears more robust than distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has climbed sharply from oversold levels near 30 in late August to its current level around 58. This move out of oversold territory aligns with the price recovery. The current RSI is in neutral territory, providing ample headroom before reaching overbought conditions (>70). The recent oversold reading in August provided a timely, albeit probabilistic, warning of waning downward momentum. The current neutral reading suggests the recent rally hasn't yet exhausted upward potential from an RSI perspective.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant downtrend from the 2025-06-23 peak of $47.33 down to the 2025-08-06 low of $42.54 is crucial. The 38.2% retracement level sits near $44.40 (successfully tested as support late August). The recent price move has surpassed the 50% retracement ($44.94) and is currently challenging the key 61.8% retracement level near $45.60-$45.70. Sustained trading above this level opens the path towards the 78.6% (~$46.80) and eventually the full 100% retracement at $47.33. Confluence exists between this Fib swing point and the significant resistance offered by the 200-day MA and historical congestion near $47.20-$48.50.
Confluence and Divergence
Significant confluence appears around the $47.20-$48.20 zone: this level houses the 200-day MA, the major Fibonacci 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels, prior key swing highs/lows from June/July/August, and the top of the recent breakout range. A decisive close above this zone, especially on sustained volume, would strongly signal bullish continuation targeting the $49-$50 area. Minor divergence existed in late August where price made marginal new lows while both the RSI and MACD histogram showed higher lows, hinting at weakening downside momentum prior to the recent advance. Current indicators generally align with the positive price action.