Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) Market Overview

• ROSEUSDT closed lower at 0.02762, down from 0.02827 at 12:00 ET-1.
• Price tested a key support near 0.0277–0.0278, but failed to hold.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30 and MACD turned negative.
• Volume surged during the downward leg, but turnover failed to confirm strength.
• Bollinger Bands showed a widening trend, suggesting rising volatility.

ROSEUSDT opened at 0.02827 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and peaked at 0.02877 before closing at 0.02762 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 45.4 million, with a notional turnover of $1.3 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish reversal pattern during the late-night session, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming after a false recovery attempt. A key support zone between 0.0277–0.0278 was tested multiple times but ultimately failed to hold, leading to a breakdown toward 0.0276. A doji near 0.02762 may indicate short-term exhaustion. The 0.0280 level appears as immediate resistance, while 0.0275 marks a critical support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bearish alignment, with price below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but price is below both, indicating a potential short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and is moving downward, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory, but without a strong rebound, the downtrend may continue. Divergence between price and RSI is weakly bearish, with RSI failing to follow lower lows.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased as the Bollinger Bands widened over the 24-hour period. Price traded below the lower band for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish trend. A retest of the lower band could be expected, but a reversal may require a breakout above the midline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish leg of the move, especially between 02:00–04:00 ET, confirming the downward pressure. However, notional turnover failed to increase in line with price decline, suggesting potential weak hands or low conviction in the move. A divergence between volume and price may hint at an eventual short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.0276–0.02877 swing, the 61.8% level is at 0.02813, which may act as a key resistance. If the price bounces from current levels, the 38.2% level at 0.02779 may offer temporary support. Daily chart Fib levels suggest 0.0275 as a critical floor for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and confirmation from MACD and RSI, a short-biased strategy could be tested using a 15-minute chart. A sell signal would be triggered when price breaks below the 0.0278 support level, with a stop loss above the 0.0280 resistance. A trailing take-profit could be placed at 0.0275, with a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. This setup would be most effective in a low-volume environment, where momentum indicators confirm the breakdown.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may test 0.0275 as a key psychological level. A close below this could invite further selling, but a rebound above 0.0278 would signal renewed buying interest. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume behavior for confirmation.