Oasis/Tether Market Overview for ROSEUSDT: Volatility Deepens with Bearish Biases

• ROSEUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final 6 hours.
• Key support at 0.0164–0.0165 tested multiple times, with a potential breakdown below 0.01635.
• Volatility expanded midday, but volume failed to confirm strong bearish conviction.
• A deepening bearish channel suggests continuation of the 0.0164–0.0169 range bias.
• A doji near 0.01664 hinted at indecision before a sharp descent.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.01685 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 0.01646 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-24. The 24-hour range reached 0.01691 (high) and 0.01639 (low), with total volume traded at 31,437,475.1 and total turnover at approximately $518,539. The price action reflects a growing bearish bias after a prolonged consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price movement over the past 24 hours revealed a bearish breakdown from a 0.0165–0.0169 consolidation range. A key support zone at 0.0164–0.0165 has been repeatedly tested since the early hours of the morning and appears to be under pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.01670–0.01665 around 14:30–15:00 ET, indicating strong bearish control. A long-legged doji near 0.01664 also suggested indecision before a sharp decline. These formations reinforce the likelihood of a continuation of the downward move.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been steadily declining, confirming the bearish trend. Price has traded below both for most of the session, with the 50-period line showing a slight flattening in the final hour. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages also show a downward bias, with the 200-day line acting as a dynamic resistance at around 0.01695. This alignment reinforces the bearish momentum and suggests that any bounce is likely to be met with selling pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD has remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing a widening bearish divergence in the final 6 hours. RSI has fallen from over 50 to below 40, indicating weakening bullish momentum. A brief overbought signal at 58 early in the session failed to hold, and RSI has since trended lower, now hovering near 36. This suggests the market is approaching an oversold threshold, though a reversal is not yet confirmed. A sustained close above 0.01655 may trigger a temporary bounce, but without confirmation of a bullish reversal, the bearish trend is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded in the last 6 hours of the session, reflecting growing volatility. Price has traded near the lower band for most of the final 4 hours, indicating a strong bearish bias. The midline of the bands has also shifted lower, reinforcing the downward trend. A potential bounce from the lower band could be expected if the 0.0164–0.0165 support holds, but a break below the lower band would indicate a deeper correction is in progress.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased progressively in the final 6 hours of the session, with the largest spike occurring between 14:30–15:45 ET. This coincided with a sharp decline from 0.01655 to 0.01639. Notional turnover also rose during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, volume during the morning consolidation phase was lower, suggesting limited participation in the earlier bearish trend. The divergence between price and volume in the morning hours may indicate a false breakout attempt, while the final 6 hours show stronger bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.01691 to 0.01639 shows that the current price is near the 61.8% retracement level (0.01649). This level acted as a minor support in the early hours, but its repeated failure to hold suggests that the market is preparing for a deeper correction. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.01665, which may offer a temporary floor if the 0.0164–0.0165 support fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

With the current bearish momentum and multiple technical indicators aligning, a backtest strategy could be designed to capitalize on the expected continuation of this trend. A short entry might be triggered if RSI dips below the oversold threshold of 30 and is confirmed by a bearish divergence in the MACD histogram. A target would be the next Fibonacci level at 0.01615, with a stop-loss placed just above the 0.01655–0.01660 range. This setup would need to be backtested using a venue-qualified symbol, such as “BINANCE:ROSEUSDT” or “ROSE-USDT,” to ensure accurate RSI and MACD data. If you confirm the correct symbol, I can proceed with the full 3-day-hold backtest for this setup.