Oasis/Tether Market Overview: ROSEUSDT Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Volatility Expansion

• ROSEUSDT declined 9.7% over the 24-hour period, forming a bearish trend with a low of $0.02429
• Volume surged during the sharp drop, confirming bearish momentum with a 24-hour turnover of $235.3M
• RSI entered oversold territory near 25, while MACD showed bearish divergence as the histogram contracted
• Price tested the lower Bollinger Band multiple times, signaling high volatility and potential reversal clues
• Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.025 and $0.0245 suggest key support zones for near-term buyers

The Oasis/Tether pair (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.02647 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02495 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.02649 and a low of $0.02429. The total volume traded during the period was 29,453,274.8 units, and the notional turnover stood at approximately $235.3 million. Price action was dominated by a sharp decline late on 2025-09-24, breaking below key intraday support levels and forming long-bodies and engulfing candles that confirmed bearish control.

The 15-minute chart shows multiple bearish formations, including a morning star inversion and a hanging man, especially during the 00:00–01:30 ET window. Price tested the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as dynamic resistance levels, both of which failed to contain the downward thrust. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $0.0266, while the 200-period SMA at $0.0275 is a critical psychological hurdle for further recovery.

The RSI fell into oversold territory near 25 by the end of the period, signaling potential for a rebound, but the MACD line and histogram showed bearish divergence—contraction and a shift to negative territory—suggesting exhaustion may be setting in. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as volatility increased, with the price dipping below the lower band on three occasions. This suggests a high level of volatility and potential mean-reversion opportunities for traders watching for a bounce from key support levels.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 15-minute swing high of $0.02649 to the low of $0.02429 show 38.2% at $0.02535 and 61.8% at $0.02483. The 24-hour low at $0.02429 is a fresh support zone that could trigger a rebound if buyers step in. Given the current structure and momentum indicators, a rebound toward $0.0253–$0.0255 is possible, but a break below $0.02483 could extend losses to $0.0245 or lower. Traders should remain cautious as the path of least resistance appears downward, and liquidity could dry up in either direction.

Looking forward, the next 24 hours will be critical in determining whether this correction phase will consolidate or continue lower. A rebound above the 50-period SMA at $0.0266 could invite short-covering and attract new buyers, but until that level is cleared, bearish momentum remains in control. As always, high volatility and low liquidity pose increased risks, especially in the absence of a clear catalyst or market-wide reversal signal.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering a short position on ROSEUSDT when the price closes below a 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern, and RSI dipping below 30. A stop-loss is placed just above the recent swing high, while the take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. During the analyzed 24-hour period, this strategy would have triggered a short entry at $0.02593 (after a close below the 50SMA at $0.0261) with a stop above $0.02634 and a target at $0.02535. The trade would have closed at $0.02495, achieving a return of approximately 4.0% before the 24-hour window closed. This suggests that the strategy is valid in a trending bearish environment but may require additional filters in range-bound or high-volatility conditions.