Oasis/Tether Market Overview: ROSEUSDT Dips Amid Volatility and Key Support Testing

• ROSEUSDT declines by 7.5% in 24 hours, closing at $0.02992 with a bearish bias.
• A key support level forms near $0.02970, confirmed by three rejections on the 15-minute chart.
• RSI enters oversold territory at 30, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a contraction after sharp bearish swings, hinting at a possible breakout.
• Volume peaks around $0.03100 before the selloff, indicating early capitulation before the move lower.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.03026 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02992 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, forming a bearish candle that tested key support. The 24-hour range extended from a high of $0.03221 to a low of $0.02936. Total volume reached approximately 107,174,000 units, with notional turnover at $3,302,000, reflecting heightened activity during price swings.

On the 15-minute chart, ROSEUSDT formed a clear bearish trend with a key support level forming at $0.02970–$0.02980. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $0.03080, followed by a long lower wick near $0.03050, suggesting some short-term buying pressure. A doji at $0.03002 on the final candle may signal a possible reversal or consolidation ahead. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearish and converging, with price currently below both. The 50-period MA at $0.03060 acts as resistance, while the 20-period MA at $0.03030 is also bearish and could retest the current level.

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, hinting at a possible near-term bounce. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction near $0.03100 before the recent pullback, a sign of potential volatility expansion. Price has remained near the lower band, suggesting the pair could test the $0.02950–$0.02970 range in the next 24 hours.

Volume spiked near $0.03100, indicating capitulation before the decline. However, in the final hours of the 24-hour window, volume remained moderate, suggesting limited conviction in the bounce. A divergence between price and volume is not evident, which supports the idea of a continuation of the bearish trend. A break below $0.02970 with rising volume may confirm the next leg lower, while a close above $0.03030 could prompt a retest of $0.03060 for further resistance.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high of $0.03221 and low of $0.02936 indicate key levels to watch. The 61.8% retracement at $0.03073 is a critical area for potential bearish continuation, while the 38.2% at $0.03030 acts as a near-term support. If the price breaks below the 23.6% level at $0.03002, it could signal a deeper test of $0.02950–$0.02970. For the 15-minute chart swings, the 38.2% retracement at $0.03020 and 61.8% at $0.02995 are also key for near-term movement.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.03020) with a stop-loss below $0.02995 and a take-profit at $0.03030–$0.03050. This aligns with RSI entering oversold territory and the formation of a doji at $0.03002. A short entry could be initiated at the 61.8% retracement at $0.03073 with a stop-loss above $0.03090 and a target at $0.03050. The recent 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI divergence offer additional confirmation for the short bias. Traders may also look to volume increases at these levels for further validation before entering.