Oasis/Tether Market Overview and ROSEUSDT 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• ROSEUSDT traded in a 24-hour range between $0.0231 and $0.02623, closing at $0.02405.
• A key resistance at $0.02546 failed, followed by a pullback below $0.02403.
• Elevated volume was seen during the rally to $0.02623, but failed to confirm strength.
• RSI hit overbought levels earlier, now showing bearish divergence with price.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session, indicating low volatility followed by a sharp expansion.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at $0.02409 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02405 24 hours later on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $0.0231 (low) to $0.02623 (high), with total volume of 352,386,531.6 and total turnover of approximately $8,552,910. Price action shows a strong test of key resistance levels but failed to close above them, suggesting bearish bias for the next 24 hours, with a risk of further downside to $0.0235–$0.0231.

Structure & Formations

ROSEUSDT formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the $0.0258 high on the 15-minute chart, signaling potential reversal. A doji formed at $0.02546, another sign of indecision. A key support at $0.02403 appears intact, with price testing this area multiple times in the latter half of the day. Resistance levels at $0.02546 and $0.0258 failed to hold, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

Engulfing and Doji Patterns

A bearish engulfing candle appeared at $0.0258, suggesting a reversal from the prior bullish trend. A doji at $0.02546 reinforced the bearish signal, as buyers failed to push the price higher after that point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance around $0.0245, and the 20-period MA continued to fall, reflecting ongoing downward momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the bearish reversal at $0.0258, indicating a shift in momentum to the downside. The RSI reached overbought levels at 70+ during the rally to $0.02623 but then declined sharply, showing bearish divergence with the price. The RSI now stands near 40, indicating neutral momentum, but with a bearish bias if it continues to fall below 40.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply between $0.02403 and $0.0245, indicating low volatility and potential for a breakout. A breakout occurred around $0.02546, but it failed to hold, suggesting bearish continuation. Price currently sits just above the lower band, indicating bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally to $0.02623, confirming the move initially, but failed to confirm strength when the price pulled back. The highest volume was seen around 22:15 ET when the price broke above $0.02623, but subsequent volume faded, indicating weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent $0.0231–$0.02623 move is at $0.02438. Price tested this level twice and failed to hold above it. The 50% retracement at $0.02465 is another key level to watch, but with current bias to the downside, it is likely to fall to the 38.2% level at $0.02403.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using RSI as a contrarian indicator, entering long when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and exits at the next day's open. Given the recent bearish divergence in RSI and the failure of key resistance levels, a short-bias strategy may be more appropriate. For example, a short entry could be triggered when RSI moves above 70 (overbought), with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.02438 and a stop-loss placed above the 50% level at $0.02465. This strategy could be tested over the 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08 period using 15-minute data.