Oasis/Tether Market Overview

• ROSEUSDT fell from 0.02756 to 0.02541 in 24 hours, closing at a 24-hour low.
• Volatility expanded with a 3.3% range between high and low prices.
• Volume surged significantly during the 1515–1600 ET window, indicating heightened selling pressure.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show price approaching the lower band, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Oasis/Tether (ROSEUSDT) opened at 0.02752 on October 6, 2025, and closed at 0.02541 on October 7, 2025, with a 24-hour high of 0.02756 and low of 0.02523. Total volume amounted to 159,773,709.29 units, with a turnover of $4,370,817. The asset experienced a sharp decline in price, with increasing volatility and bearish momentum observed across the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of lower highs and lower lows throughout the 24-hour window, indicating a bearish trend. Notable bearish candlestick patterns include the hanging man and shooting star formations during the 0415–0430 ET and 0915–0930 ET windows, respectively. Key support levels were identified at 0.0265, 0.0260, and 0.0255, while resistance levels were found at 0.0275, 0.0270, and 0.0266. A strong rejection at resistance was observed during the 1345–1400 ET window, where price gapped downward after hitting a high of 0.0269.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) moved below the 50-period SMA, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 100-period SMA on the daily chart, reinforcing the downward trend. Price currently trades below both the 200-period and 50-period SMAs, suggesting long-term bearish sentiment and that the market remains in a downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 1000–1015 ET window, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 during the 1515–1530 ET period, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, RSI failed to show a strong reversal, and price continued to decline. This divergence may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a notable expansion in volatility from 0300–0400 ET, followed by a contraction between 0430–0600 ET, signaling a period of consolidation before the next move. Price remained near the lower band for most of the day, reinforcing bearish pressure. The 1515–1530 ET candle closed near the lower band, suggesting that sellers dominated the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $21,180,447 during the 1515–1600 ET window, coinciding with the most significant price drop. Turnover also surged during this period, aligning with the downward price action. The divergence between price and volume in the early morning (0300–0430 ET) suggests a temporary pause in selling pressure. However, volume increased again in the afternoon, confirming the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.02756 to 0.02523, key retracement levels include 0.02704 (23.6%), 0.02682 (38.2%), and 0.02659 (50%). Price tested the 38.2% level around 0.02682 during the 0915–0930 ET window before resuming the decline. The 61.8% level at 0.02621 appears as the next potential support zone. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% levels are located at ~0.0273 and ~0.0268, respectively, with the latter likely to be a key area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., shooting star or hanging man) confirmed by a close below the 20-period SMA and a RSI below 30. Stops could be placed above the nearest Fibonacci resistance (38.2–50%) and exits triggered after a 3–5% move in favor or on a rejection at key support levels. Volume should confirm the signal to avoid false breakdowns. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior and could be tested on historical data to evaluate its robustness.