Nvidia Surpasses Earnings Expectations, Yet Stock Index Futures Rise Slightly

Stock index futures rose on Thursday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.1%, and Dow futures up 0.3%. Nvidia's shares fell despite the company topping earnings and guidance estimates. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.04% to 1.609%.

Stock index futures rose on Thursday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.1%, and Dow futures up 0.3%. Despite the positive market sentiment, Nvidia's (NVDA) shares fell despite the company topping earnings and guidance estimates. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.04% to 1.609%.

Index Changes

The S&P Dow Jones Indices announced significant changes to its indices, with Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) joining the S&P 500, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), and Talen Energy (TLN) and Kinetik (KNTK) joining the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600, respectively [1]. Interactive Brokers Group will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance in the S&P 500, effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, August 28. Talen Energy will join the S&P MidCap 400, replacing Interactive Brokers Group, effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, August 28. Kinetik Holdings will join the S&P SmallCap 600, replacing Pacific Premier Bancorp, effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, September 2.

These changes reflect the evolving landscape of the financial markets. Interactive Brokers' addition to the S&P 500 could attract more institutional investors, while Talen Energy's and Kinetik Holdings' inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600, respectively, could bring increased liquidity and visibility to these companies.

Nvidia's Mixed Earnings Report

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 adjusted versus $1.01 estimated and revenue of $46.74 billion versus $46.06 billion estimated [2]. The company's stock, which is up 35% this year after almost tripling in 2024, slipped in extended trading as data center revenue came up short of estimates for the second straight period. Nvidia expects revenue this quarter to be $54 billion, plus or minus 2%, though that number does not assume any H20 shipments to China [2].

Nvidia's growth is driven by its data center business, centered around graphics processors, or GPUs, and complementary products for connecting and using them in large quantities. Revenue in the division rose 56% from the year-ago period to $41.1 billion, which was short of a StreetAccount estimate of $41.34 billion in the quarter. Despite concerns about an "AI bubble" and a slower-than-expected GPT-5 launch, analysts remain bullish on Nvidia's prospects [3].

Analysts anticipate over 10% upside ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, making this a buying opportunity for investors. However, Nvidia faces potential headwinds from China export curbs, which could result in an $8 billion hit. The company has reportedly told suppliers to suspend production of its H20 chip due to security concerns raised by Beijing [3].

Market Reaction

The mixed earnings report from Nvidia contributed to a sell-off in the stock, despite the company's strong performance in other areas. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.04% to 1.609%, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets.

References

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/interactive-brokers-to-join-sp-500-replacing-walgreens-.html
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/27/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q2-2026.html
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/nvidia-q2-earnings-expected-bring-10-upside-invest-etfs-2508/