Nvidia Shatters All-Time Highs – Is This the AI Supercycle's Defining Moment?

• Nvidia's shares surge 3.7% to $170.15, hitting a fresh 52-week high of $172.40
• U.S. approves H20 chip sales to China post-meeting between Trump and CEO Jensen Huang
• Semiconductor sector faces geopolitical crossroads as Intel (INTC) drops 1.18%

Nvidia's historic rally today underscores its AI dominance amid geopolitical pivots, with the stock surging past prior peaks to touch $172.40. The breakthrough comes after U.S. regulators greenlit exports of its H20 processors to China, resolving a months-long trade impasse while analysts forecast $10B+ in recovered revenue. The move contrasts sharply with broader sector softness, as Intel's decline highlights the divergent fortunes within chipmakers.

U.S.-China AI Tech Thaw Sparks $5T Valuation Surge
Nvidia’s meteoric rise stems directly from the Trump administration’s unexpected approval of H20 chip exports to China, coupled with the launch of a China-compliant RTX Pro GPU. This regulatory breakthrough resolves a critical supply chain bottleneck, unlocking pent-up demand from Chinese data centers. Analysts at Melius Research estimate this could add 38% revenue growth to FY2026, while Oppenheimer’s $200 price target reflects bullish expectations for AI infrastructure spending. The dual catalysts—regulatory clarity and product adaptation—have erased prior fears of market exclusion, fueling a $4.14 trillion market cap surge.

Capture the AI Rally with Bullish Options – Watch $175 Resistance
NVDX (T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF) and NVDU (Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares) amplify the momentum, but options offer precision:

• Risk Metrics: RSI 79.99 (overbought), MACD 6.95 (bullish divergence vs 200dma), Bollinger Upper $169.73 (price near resistance)
• NVDA20250725C160: Strike $160 (in-the-money), Delta 0.84 (84% price sensitivity), Theta -0.65 (high time decay), Gamma 0.02 (moderate volatility gain), Turnover $34M. Offers steady premium decay protection with 14.87% leverage.
• NVDA20250725C170: Strike $170 (at-the-money), Delta 0.53 (balanced risk/reward), Theta -0.53, Gamma 0.04 (superior volatility capture), Turnover $24M. 40% leverage ratio shines in a sustained breakout.

Bulls target $175 resistance (next major hurdle) while bears watch $165 support. For aggressive plays, the C170 offers 165% upside in a 5% rally ($178.50) with gamma amplifying gains. Avoid puts below $155 due to theta bleed. Action: Roll C160 into C170 if $172 holds, else take profits near $178.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
Following a 4% intraday increase, NVDA has shown mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is high at 55.77%, the returns diminish over longer periods. The 10-day return is only 0.17%, and the 30-day return is 0.28%, indicating potential downside risk after the initial surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.50%, suggesting that while there is some upside potential, it is limited.

Nvidia’s AI Supremacy Faces Geopolitical Tests – Hold the Line at $165
Nvidia’s historic ascent faces two critical tests: sustaining AI demand growth and navigating U.S.-China tech détente. While today’s rally confirms its AI leadership, traders must monitor Intel’s (INTC) -1.18% stumble as a sector warning. The $165 support (30-day low) and $175 resistance ($200 target’s midpoint) define the near-term battleground. Holders should embrace the C170 call for $175+ upside while hedgers consider protective puts below $160. The ultimate prize? A sustained breakout above $178 would cement Nvidia’s $5 trillion valuation—a milestone signaling AI’s irreversible dominance in global tech.