Nvidia Surges 3.88% Amid Trump Chip Export Review and Antitrust Clearance Sparking Sector Rally

Summary
• Nvidia (NVDA) surges 3.88% to $180.91, hitting an intraday high of $180.99
• Trump administration initiates H200 chip export review to China, with 30-day interagency evaluation
• FTC clears $5B Nvidia-Intel investment, boosting sector-wide optimism

Nvidia’s sharp intraday rally on 2025-12-19 reflects a confluence of regulatory developments and sector momentum. The Trump administration’s multi-agency review of H200 chip exports to China, coupled with antitrust clearance for its Intel investment, has ignited speculative fervor. With the stock trading 3.88% above its previous close and a 52-week high of $212.19 still in reach, investors are recalibrating expectations for China market access and AI infrastructure demand.

Trump's Chip Export Review and Antitrust Clearance Ignite Optimism
Nvidia’s intraday surge stems from two pivotal developments: the Trump administration’s initiation of a 30-day interagency review for H200 chip exports to China and the Federal Trade Commission’s clearance of its $5 billion investment in Intel. The former signals a potential reversal of prior export restrictions, with President Trump’s pledge to allow sales in exchange for a 25% fee reigniting demand for Chinese market access. The latter removes a regulatory overhang, bolstering confidence in Nvidia’s strategic partnerships. While hurdles remain—including national security concerns and China’s prior rejection of H20 chips—immediate optimism has driven a 3.88% rally, with leveraged ETFs like NVDL and NVDU surging 7.89%.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Amplifies Nvidia's Gains as Peers Surge
The semiconductor sector’s broad-based rally has amplified Nvidia’s gains, with peers like AMD (+5.88%) and Broadcom (+2.5%) surging on similar AI infrastructure optimism. Micron’s 6% jump underscores demand for memory components in AI systems, while Intel’s 3% rise reflects renewed confidence in chipmaker collaborations. This synchronized move highlights the sector’s reliance on AI-driven demand and regulatory tailwinds, with Nvidia’s leadership position amplifying its exposure to these trends.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Strategies Capitalize on Volatility and Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 46.18 (neutral) • MACD: -3.05 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $172.12–$187.20 (current price near upper band) • 200-day MA: $157.21 (well above) • Gamma: 0.056 (high sensitivity to price swings)

Nvidia’s technicals suggest a volatile but structured rally, with the 200-day MA acting as a strong support. The RSI’s neutrality and Bollinger Band proximity to the upper bound indicate a potential pullback, but the 52-week high remains a key resistance. Leveraged ETFs like NVDL (7.89%) and NVDU (7.83%) offer amplified exposure to this momentum.

Top Options Contracts:
• NVDA20251226C180 (Call, $180 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 26.28% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 56.96% (high)
- Delta: 0.548 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.665 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.056 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $34.5M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $190 → $10 gain per contract
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rally, with moderate IV ensuring cost efficiency.
• NVDA20251226C182.5 (Call, $182.5 strike, 2025-12-26):
- IV: 25.75% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 92.12% (very high)
- Delta: 0.406 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.532 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.056 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $7.1M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $190 → $7.5 gain per contract
- Why: Aggressive bulls should target this for maximum leverage, balancing high IV with liquidity.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should prioritize NVDA20251226C180 for a 5% upside target, while NVDA20251226C182.5 offers higher reward for those willing to tolerate faster time decay. A breakout above $187.20 (Bollinger upper band) could trigger a retest of the 52-week high.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
The backtest of NVDA's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.79%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.34%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.46%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 15.54%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NVDA can deliver significant gains following a 4% intraday increase.

Position for a Volatility-Driven Rally as Sector Leaders and Options Set the Stage for Aggressive Moves
Nvidia’s rally hinges on the Trump administration’s 30-day H200 export review and sector-wide AI infrastructure optimism. While technicals suggest a pullback near the $179.66 middle Bollinger Band, the 200-day MA at $157.21 remains a critical support. Investors should monitor the $180.99 intraday high as a potential breakout level, with leveraged ETFs like NVDL (7.89%) and options like NVDA20251226C180 offering amplified exposure. With AMD surging 5.88%, the semiconductor sector’s momentum reinforces Nvidia’s strategic position. Act now: Buy NVDA20251226C180 if $180.99 holds, or short-term traders can target a 5% upside with NVDA20251226C182.5.