Nvidia Surges 3.3% on Policy Reversal and AI Momentum – Is the AI Titan Still a Buy?

Summary
• Nvidia (NVDA) jumps 3.3% to $179.48, breaking above its 52-week high of $183.30.
• China policy reversal unlocks $5B in near-term revenue and $30B potential by 2027.
• Data center revenue now $115B annually, with supply constraints persisting through December.

Nvidia’s stock is surging on a regulatory breakthrough in China, unlocking access to a $30 billion market for H20 AI chips by 2027. With data center demand outpacing supply and a $5.5B write-down now reversed, the AI titan is commanding attention. Short-term bulls are testing resistance at $182.00 (Bollinger Upper Band) while technical indicators suggest a mix of momentum and caution.

China Policy Reversal Unlocks $30B Revenue Potential
Nvidia’s 3.3% intraday surge stems from a U.S. policy reversal allowing H20 chip shipments to China, a market previously deemed inaccessible. This move reverses a $5.5 billion inventory write-down and unlocks $5 billion in revenue over the next two quarters. With China’s AI infrastructure buildout accelerating, even throttled H20 chips are in high demand, ensuring Nvidia’s dominance in a $30 billion market by 2027. The policy shift also prevents Chinese firms from pivoting to domestic alternatives like Huawei, solidifying Nvidia’s moat.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as Intel Trails Nvidia’s AI Momentum
The semiconductor sector is in flux, with Intel (INTC) rising 0.7% but trailing Nvidia’s 3.3% gain. While Intel benefits from broader AI demand, its data center revenue growth (30% YoY) pales compared to Nvidia’s 114% surge. Nvidia’s $115B data center revenue—driven by Blackwell and Rubin roadmaps—outpaces Intel’s $25B segment, highlighting its leadership in AI-specific hardware. Capital spending by top semiconductor firms is rising 7% to $135B, but Nvidia’s supply constraints and $75% gross margins underscore its premium positioning.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Positioning
• MACD: 6.614 (above signal line 7.059) = bearish divergence
• RSI: 63.53 (neutral to overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: $158.12–$182.00 (current price at 99.7% of upper band)
• 200D MA: $134.76 (far below price)
• Key Resistance: $182.00 (Bollinger Upper), $185.00 (psychological level)
• Key Support: $170.77 (30D S/R), $138.49 (200D S/R)

Nvidia’s 3.3% move suggests a short-term bullish breakout above $182.00, but technical indicators like MACD divergence and RSI neutrality hint at caution. The 200D MA ($134.76) remains a strong floor, while the 30D MA ($164.40) supports the current rally. For leveraged exposure, consider NVDA20250808C175 (strike $175, 8 Aug 2025) and NVDA20250808C177.5 (strike $177.5, 8 Aug 2025).

Top Options Selection 1:
• Contract: NVDA20250808C175
• Type: Call
• Strike: $175
• Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 37.66% (moderate)
• Leverage: 30.91% (high)
• Delta: 0.7212 (moderate)
• Theta: -1.3045 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.0425 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $22.23M
• Payoff (5% upside): $13.45/share (max(0, $188.45 - $175))
This call offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a 5% upside scenario. The 37.66% IV and $22.23M turnover ensure liquidity and volatility flexibility.

Top Options Selection 2:
• Contract: NVDA20250808C177.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $177.5
• Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 36.03% (moderate)
• Leverage: 44.27% (very high)
• Delta: 0.6082 (moderate)
• Theta: -1.1738 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.0508 (very high)
• Turnover: $26.44M
• Payoff (5% upside): $10.95/share (max(0, $188.45 - $177.5))
This contract balances high leverage (44.27%) with strong gamma (0.0508), making it ideal for a breakout above $177.5. The $26.44M turnover ensures tight bid-ask spreads.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
After a 3% intraday surge, NVDA has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 57.23%, with an average return of 0.60%. The 10-day win rate is 60.54%, with an average return of 2.68%. The 30-day win rate is 68.67%, with an average return of 8.25%. These results indicate that NVDA tends to maintain momentum after a significant intraday increase, making it a potentially favorable entry point for investors looking to capitalize on short-to-medium-term gains.

Bullish Breakout or Overbought Correction? Watch $182.00 and 200D MA
Nvidia’s 3.3% surge is driven by China policy relief and AI demand outpacing supply, but technical indicators like MACD divergence and RSI neutrality suggest caution. The $182.00 Bollinger Upper Band is a critical resistance level—breaking it could trigger a $190.00 test, while a pullback to $170.77 (30D S/R) would validate a consolidation phase. For now, the NVDA20250808C177.5 call offers high leverage and gamma for a 5% upside scenario. Investors should also monitor Intel (INTC, +0.7%) for sector sentiment and China’s potential regulatory follow-up on H20 chip security concerns. Act now if $182.00 breaks—this is the key level to confirm AI’s next leg up.