Nvidia Surges 2.67% as Sector Uncertainty Looms: What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Nvidia’s stock surges 2.67% intraday, trading at $188.61 amid mixed sector signals.
• Insider sales by Nvidia and Broadcom executives raise questions about confidence in chip stocks.
• Alibaba’s reported interest in China’s AI market hints at potential demand for Nvidia’s GPUs.

Nvidia’s sharp intraday rally on December 23, 2025, has ignited speculation about the semiconductor sector’s trajectory. The stock climbed from a morning low of $182.90 to a high of $188.80, driven by a mix of regulatory developments, insider activity, and strategic market positioning. With the U.S. delaying China chip tariffs until 2027 and Chinese regulators scrutinizing Nvidia’s H20 chip, investors are parsing conflicting signals. The move comes as sector peers like AMD struggle, with the semiconductor index under pressure from broader trade tensions and production challenges.

Insider Sales and Alibaba News Fuel Volatility
Nvidia’s intraday surge coincided with a $40 million stock sale by director Mark Stevens, part of a broader trend of insider divestments across the semiconductor sector. While such sales often signal caution, they do not necessarily reflect a bearish outlook. Simultaneously, Alibaba’s reported exploration of China’s AI infrastructure market—where Nvidia’s GPUs could play a pivotal role—sparked optimism. The stock’s 2.67% gain also reflects anticipation of potential regulatory easing, as the U.S. delayed China chip tariffs until June 2027. However, Chinese regulators’ recent inquiry into Nvidia’s H20 chip security risks introduces uncertainty, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish catalysts.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as AMD Trails
The semiconductor sector remains fragmented, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) lagging despite its dominant AI chip position. AMD’s intraday price change of -0.13% highlights divergent investor sentiment compared to Nvidia’s rally. While both companies face insider selling, AMD’s weaker performance may reflect concerns over its competitive positioning against Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem. Broader sector headwinds include U.S.-China trade tensions, TSMC’s underwhelming Arizona production, and Samsung’s 55% drop in chip division profits. These factors underscore the sector’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shifts and regulatory risks.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technicals
• Technical Indicators: 200-day average: $157.92 (below); RSI: 52.62 (neutral); MACD: -2.00 (bullish divergence).
• Key Levels: Upper Bollinger Band at $187.67, 30D support at $180.49–$181.06.

Nvidia’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the RSI hovering near neutral territory and MACD showing divergence. The stock’s 2.67% gain has pushed it above the 200-day average, a critical threshold for long-term trend confirmation. For options traders, the NVDA20260102C190 and NVDA20260102C192.5 contracts stand out. The former offers a 65.06% leverage ratio and a delta of 0.4588, balancing directional exposure with time decay (theta: -0.4693). The latter, with a 101.44% leverage ratio and delta of 0.3432, provides amplified upside potential as the stock approaches its 52-week high of $212.19. Both contracts exhibit high gamma (0.0465 and 0.0442, respectively), making them responsive to price swings. A 5% upside scenario (targeting $197.53) would yield a 125.98% payoff for the 190 call and 139.47% for the 192.5 call, assuming liquidity holds. Aggressive bulls may consider NVDA20260102C190 into a break above $190.00.

Backtest Nvidia Stock Performance
The backtest of NVDA's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 55.56%, the 10-day win rate is 60.08%, and the 30-day win rate is 65.16%, indicating that the stock tends to experience positive returns in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 15.50%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the surge is followed by favorable market conditions.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Watch 190.00 Support
Nvidia’s intraday rally reflects a delicate balance between regulatory optimism and sector-wide caution. The stock’s ability to hold above $190.00 will be critical in confirming a sustained bullish trend, while a breakdown below $187.67 (upper Bollinger Band) could trigger profit-taking. Investors should monitor the U.S.-China tariff delay’s impact on demand for AI infrastructure and the outcome of Chinese regulators’ H20 chip inquiry. Meanwhile, AMD’s -0.13% intraday decline underscores the sector’s fragility. For now, long positions in Nvidia appear justified, provided the 200-day average ($157.92) remains intact. Watch for a potential follow-through above $190.00 or a regulatory reversal to dictate next steps.