NVIDIA Stock May Swing 7.4% Post-Earnings, Analysts Predict

NVIDIA Corporation, a prominent manufacturer of artificial intelligence chips, is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report on May 28. Analysts tracking option trading predict that the company's stock could experience a price movement of up to 7.4% in the following day, which is lower than the average 11.3% volatility observed in the past eight quarters.

In February, NVIDIA's stock experienced an 8.5% decline after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations but provided a first-quarter gross margin guidance that fell short of forecasts. Following the earnings release, the stock fluctuated between a 2.8% increase and an 8.6% decrease, resulting in a volatility range of 11.4% over the next two days.

Despite the significant volatility in NVIDIA's stock price following earnings releases, investors who held the stock for 12 months after the announcement have seen substantial returns. Over the past decade, the average return for investors who bought NVIDIA stock before earnings reports and held it for a year was nearly 120%.

In the lead-up to the May 28 earnings report, NVIDIA's stock has navigated a tumultuous year marked by the development of artificial intelligence in China and the fluctuating trade policies of the Trump administration. The company's stock faced challenges at the start of 2025 due to concerns over the high costs of AI infrastructure and potential slowdowns in spending by major tech companies. Additionally, the U.S. government's export controls on chips and global tariffs have negatively impacted NVIDIA's stock performance.

However, factors such as the temporary trade ceasefire between the U.S. and China, NVIDIA's expanding business prospects overseas, and the potential lifting of restrictive chip trade policies by the Trump administration have provided some support to the stock ahead of the earnings release.

Wall Street analysts anticipate that NVIDIA's revenue and earnings for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, ending in April, will show substantial growth, although the pace of increase may continue to decelerate. Analysts project that NVIDIA's first-quarter revenue will grow by over 66% to $43 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising by 44% to $0.88. In comparison, during the first quarter of the previous year, NVIDIA's revenue grew by 262%, and earnings per share increased by 461%.

Investors will be closely watching the upcoming earnings report for insights into the impact of Trump administration policies restricting NVIDIA's chip sales to China. NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, has stated that these policies have resulted in a $15 billion loss in sales for the company. The earnings report will provide valuable information on NVIDIA's financial performance and its ability to navigate the challenges posed by regulatory constraints and market competition.