Nvidia Stock Rises 4.07% In Two Days As Technicals Show Bullish Momentum

Nvidia (NVDA) shares closed at $192.57 on October 9, 2025, marking a 1.83% gain and a two-day rally of 4.07%. This upward movement suggests renewed bullish interest, though comprehensive technical analysis across multiple frameworks reveals nuanced market dynamics that warrant careful interpretation.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows consecutive bullish candles with higher highs and lows, culminating in an October 9 close near the session high ($195.3). Key resistance emerges at the $195–$197 zone, where August 2025 peaks align with the psychological $200 barrier. Support resides at $186.50, validated by the October 7 low and reinforced by the 50-day moving average. A bearish divergence appears: despite higher prices on October 8–9, the upper wick on October 9 indicates profit-taking near resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($185.82) crossed bullishly above the 100-day SMA ($181.20) in late September, confirming a positive medium-term trajectory. All three moving averages (50/100/200-day) exhibit bullish sequencing, with the 200-day SMA ($158.15) providing a robust long-term floor. The current price trading above all three averages signals sustained upward momentum, though a near-term pullback toward the 50-day SMA could materialize after the recent advance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging in the histogram, with the signal line hovering near zero – indicating potential trend acceleration. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) has K-line (86) and D-line (82) diverging near overbought territory. This duality creates tension: MACD suggests strengthening momentum, while KDJ warns of short-term exhaustion. A failure to breach the $195 resistance could trigger KDJ bearish crossovers.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded notably in late September, accommodating heightened volatility during the rally from $170 to $195. Current price presses against the upper band ($194.80), historically a reversal zone. However, bandwidth remains above average, indicating sustained volatility appetite. A consolidation phase between $188 (20-day SMA) and $195 would signal healthy digestion before the next directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
The two-day rally occurred on elevated volume (182.9M and 130.1M shares), exceeding the 30-day average of ~185M, lending credibility to the breakout. However, the October 9 volume failed to eclipse the September 22 peak (269.6M) during the $174–$184 surge, creating a minor negative volume divergence at resistance. Sustained trade above $190 with volume expansion would validate upside continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (68) approaches overbought territory but hasn’t breached the 70 threshold that historically preceded pullbacks (e.g., April 2025’s 76 RSI preceded an 18% drop). While momentum is strong, RSI divergence exists: prices made higher highs in October, but RSI failed to exceed its late-September peak (75). This suggests waning bullish strength that may precede consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant March–August 2025 decline (peak: $147.01; trough: $96.91) yields key levels: the 61.8% retracement at $129.80 held as support in July, while the 78.6% level ($153.50) now acts as a magnet above current prices. Importantly, the recent rally stalled at the 50% retracement ($193.50) of the August–September decline ($183.61 to $135.13), creating multi-frame confluence resistance at $193–$195.

Confluence and divergence are evident across indicators. Bullish consensus forms around moving averages (stacked positively) and MACD’s momentum build, while resistance near $195 aligns with Bollinger Band ceilings, Fibonacci retracements, and bearish KDJ/RSI divergences. Volume signals are mixed but lean constructive. Overall, the technical structure favors eventual upside resolution, though near-term consolidation between $186.50 support and $195 resistance appears probable to relieve overbought pressures. A decisive close above $195 with volume confirmation would signal a breakout targeting the $205–$210 zone.