Nvidia's Stock Price in 2028: Can It Reach $250 or More?

The AI revolution is no longer a distant vision—it is here, reshaping industries, economies, and the global tech landscape. At the heart of this transformation lies NVIDIA, a company whose dominance in AI-driven data centers and semiconductor innovation has positioned it as a bellwether for the future of computing. As investors weigh long-term opportunities in the AI era, the question of whether NVIDIA's stock can reach $250 per share by 2028 demands a rigorous analysis of its market leadership, financial strength, and the structural tailwinds of AI adoption.

The AI Infrastructure Flywheel: NVIDIA's Dominance in Data Centers

NVIDIA's Data Center segment is the linchpin of its growth story. In Q2 2025, the segment generated $26.3 billion in revenue, a 154% year-over-year increase, driven by surging demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures. These GPUs power everything from large language models (LLMs) to real-time inference workloads, cementing NVIDIA's role as the de facto standard in AI infrastructure.

The company's 80% market share in AI chips (as of 2025) is underpinned by its CUDA software ecosystem, which has attracted over 4 million developers. This network effect creates a self-reinforcing cycle: developers build tools and libraries on CUDA, enterprises adopt NVIDIA hardware, and the platform becomes increasingly indispensable. Competitors like AMD and Intel, despite growing revenue, lack this critical mass. For instance, AMD's MI300X, while competitive in certain applications, has yet to replicate the CUDA ecosystem's breadth or developer loyalty.

Global Sovereign AI and the Expansion of Demand

The geopolitical push for sovereign AI—where nations invest in homegrown AI infrastructure to reduce reliance on foreign tech—is a megatrend that favors NVIDIA. Japan's ABCI 3.0 supercomputer, powered by NVIDIA H200 GPUs, and sovereign AI initiatives in the EU and China are expanding the demand pool. These projects require high-performance computing (HPC) and AI-specific hardware, where NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture and full-stack solutions (hardware, software, networking) are unmatched.

Moreover, the rise of agentic AI—systems that can autonomously perform complex tasks—will drive exponential growth in compute demand. NVIDIA's recent partnerships with Hugging Face, IQVIA, and Mayo Clinic to accelerate drug discovery and healthcare AI, as well as its investments in robotics (via the Isaac platform), position it to capture cross-industry demand.

Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns

NVIDIA's financials are a testament to its operational excellence. For fiscal 2025, the company reported $130.5 billion in revenue and $2.94 in earnings per share, with the Data Center segment alone contributing $115 billion. Its gross margins (74–75%) and operating margins (40–45%) are industry-leading, reflecting its premium pricing power and R&D efficiency.

Shareholder returns further strengthen its case as a long-term investment. In H1 2025, NVIDIA returned $15.4 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends and authorized an additional $50 billion in repurchases. This capital allocation strategy, combined with its $32 forward P/E ratio (as of Q2 2025), suggests a balance between reinvesting in growth and rewarding investors.

Valuation and the Path to $250

To assess whether NVIDIA can reach $250 by 2028, we must consider its revenue growth trajectory. If the company maintains its current pace of 40–50% annual revenue growth (as seen in 2024–2025), its 2028 revenue could exceed $100 billion. At a 35x P/E (a reasonable multiple for a high-growth AI leader), this would imply a market cap of $3.5 trillion. With 5 billion shares outstanding (post-10-for-1 stock split), the stock price would need to rise to approximately $280 to achieve this valuation.

Key risks include regulatory scrutiny, competition from AMD and Intel, and potential AI market saturation. However, NVIDIA's ecosystem lock-in, first-mover advantage in Blackwell, and strategic partnerships with cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft mitigate these risks.

Conclusion: A Long-Term Buy for the AI Era

NVIDIA's trajectory is not just about stock price targets—it's about capturing the defining technological shift of the 21st century. With AI-driven data center demand expected to grow at a 30% CAGR through 2030, and NVIDIA's market share likely to remain above 70%, the company's fundamentals are robust. For investors with a multi-year horizon, NVIDIA offers a compelling blend of innovation, financial discipline, and secular growth.

Investment Advice: A long-term position in NVIDIA is warranted for those comfortable with its valuation premium and the broader AI narrative. Investors should monitor quarterly revenue trends, Blackwell adoption rates, and competitor responses, but the case for $250+ by 2028 is both statistically and structurally sound.